[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 080552
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE NATE MOVED OVER KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE WHERE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES RESIDE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 88.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Pointe a la Hache.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nate was located
by surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar over Biloxi
Mississippi near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 88.9 West. Nate is
moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,
Nate's center will continue to move inland over Mississippi and
across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian
Mountains through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Nate is expected to weaken quickly as it moves farther
inland, and it is likely to become a tropical storm later
today. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 984 mb
(29.06 inches).

A water level of 4.8 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently
reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Shell Beach,
Louisiana.  The gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi,
recently reported a water level of 5.5 ft MHHW.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in the hurricane warning area for the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area through this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11
ft
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft
North of Pointe a la Hache to the mouth of the Pearl River...4
to 6 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6
ft
Morgan City, Louisiana to Pointe a la Hache...1 to 3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Monday:

Western Cuba: additional 1 to 2 inches.

East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the
Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians:
3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches.

Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians:
2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern
Mississippi today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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