[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Oct 7 23:05:36 CDT 2017
WTUS84 KMOB 080405
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081215-
Hurricane Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL162017
1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
...NATE'S NORTHERN EYEWALL MOVING ONSHORE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for Escambia Coastal,
Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa
Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Escambia
Inland, Monroe, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Inland, Wayne, and
Wilcox
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George, Greene, Perry,
Stone, and Washington
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 80 miles southwest of Mobile AL or about 120 miles
west-southwest of Pensacola FL
- 29.9N 89.1W
- Storm Intensity 85 mph
- Movement North or 360 degrees at 20 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Nate soon to move ashore over coastal Mississippi with maximum sustained around 85 mph with
higher gusts. The hurricane will continue moving rapidly northward over interior southeastern MS
through approximately 3 AM, and then over interior southwest Alabama (roughly near Choctaw County)
by sunrise. The storm will weaken while moving inland and the main impacts will be to the north and
east of Nate's center. Radar shows that winds have now increased into the 40-60 mph range over coastal
Alabama with higher gusts. Power outages are eminent and have been reported during the past hour,
and will become widespread where Nate's center passes. Area NOAA Ports tide gages continue to rise
as THE PEAK OF NATE's STORM SURGE is now arriving over coastal Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle. Tornadoes also remain a threat in the short term as conditions remain favorable for such,
thus, a Tornado Watch remains in effect until 2 AM CDT. Nate has also cause localized flash flooding,
and this will continue as a total of 4 to 6" of rainfall, with isolated totals as high as 8" are
expected by midday Sunday. Radar indicates that up to 5" of rain has already fallen since late afternoon
over coastal MS and interior SE Mississippi. One hour precipitation maximum precipitation amounts will
continue to range between 1-2" per hour.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 6 to 9 feet across southwest
Alabama. Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 4 to 6 feet across
the western Florida Panhandle.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts roughly along and west of I-65 and areas closer to the coast.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts to the east of I-65 and further inland.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across portions of southwest Alabama, northwest Florida,
south-central Alabama and inland southeast Mississippi.
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish and flood waters abate.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
None.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 2 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
$$
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