[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Oct 7 17:13:31 CDT 2017
WTUS84 KMOB 072212
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-080615-
Hurricane Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL162017
512 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
**HURRICANE NATE APPROACHING THE COAST**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George, Greene, Perry,
Stone, and Washington
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, Wayne,
and Wilcox
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
Santa Rosa Coastal
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 170 miles south-southwest of Mobile AL or about 180 miles
southwest of Pensacola FL
- 28.4N 89.1W
- Storm Intensity 90 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 23 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Hurricane Nate continues to move rapidly north across the northern
Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds around 90 mph. The
hurricane will continue moving quickly northward towards the north
central Gulf coast region this evening, most likely making a landfall
somewhere along extreme southeastern Louisiana or the Mississippi
coast by around midnight. The storm will be gradually weaken while
moving quickly inland during the predawn hours Sunday morning, moving
rapidly into north-central Alabama by midday Sunday. Nate's impacts
will likely be quite significant. These impacts will include storm
surge inundation, wind, rainfall and tornadoes. Winds will abruptly
increase early this evening near the coast and over interior southeast
Mississippi, spreading inland later in the evening, then conditions
gradually improving starting late tonight through Sunday morning. Power
outages, possibly widespread near where Nate's center passes, will be
likely across the region by tonight and early Sunday. The highest
winds will generally be west of I-65 and closer to the coast. Storm
surge inundation of 6 to 9 feet is forecast around the Mobile Bay
region and Alabama barrier islands. Lesser, but still significant
storm surge inundation, of 4 to 6 feet are forecast further east
across the western Florida Panhandle. Local water rises could be
sudden and recession slow in the two days following Nate's passage as
onshore flow will continue. Nate will also bring the potential for
heavy rainfall to the area with 4 to 6" of rainfall with totals as
high as 8" (especially along and west of I-65) beginning late this
afternoon and continuing through much of the day on Sunday. Tornadoes
will also be possible this afternoon through Sunday. Please do not
underestimate the tornado potential with this event. Our area is
classically located in a favorable region for tornado production with
respect to Nate's center. Tropical related tornadoes often spin up
quickly and strike with little or no warning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 6 to 9 feet across southwest
Alabama. Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 4 to 6 feet across
the western Florida Panhandle. The main thing here is to continue to watch the
trends as the forecast changes.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts roughly along and west of I-65 and areas closer to the coast.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts to the east of I-65 and further inland.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across portions of southwest Alabama, northwest Florida,
south-central Alabama and inland southeast Mississippi.
Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
A high rip current risk will persist leading up to Nate and continuing
a few days after passage of the hurricane due to northward moving swell
energy that will keep the risk very elevated. Please do not go in the
water immediately after Nate's passage!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look for
additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to select
radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should not use cell
phones while operating vehicles.
If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.
Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.
Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 800 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net
More information about the Tropical
mailing list