[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Oct 7 11:32:41 CDT 2017
WTUS84 KMOB 071632
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-080045-
Hurricane Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL162017
1132 AM CDT Sat Oct 7 2017
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
**HURRICANE NATE TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Hurricane
Warning for Greene, Perry, and Washington
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, Wayne,
and Wilcox
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George, Greene, Perry,
Stone, and Washington
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
Santa Rosa Coastal
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 280 miles south of Mobile AL or about 280 miles
south-southwest of Pensacola FL
- 26.6N 88.4W
- Storm Intensity 90 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 26 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Nate continues to strengthen, the maximum sustained winds have increased to
90 mph. Hurricane Nate will continue moving quickly northward towards the
north central Gulf coast region through this evening, bringing a quick
hit to our area this evening through Sunday morning. Nate's impacts
will likely be quite significant. Impacts include storm surge inundation,
wind, rainfall and tornadoes. Winds will abruptly increase overnight,
then conditions improve through late Sunday afternoon. Power outages,
possibly widespread near where Nate's center passes, are likely across
the region by late this evening. The highest winds will generally be
west of I-65 and closer to the coast. Storm surge inundation of 6 to 9
feet is forecast around the Mobile Bay region and Alabama barrier islands.
Lesser amounts, but still significant storm surge inundation of 4 to 6
feet are forecast further eastward across the western Florida Panhandle.
Local water rises could be sudden and recession slow in the two days
following Nate's passage. Nate will also bring the potential for heavy
rainfall to the area with 3 to 6" of rainfall with totals as high as 8"
(especially along and west of I-65) beginning late today and much of the
day on Sunday. Tornadoes will also be possible beginning later today and
continuing into Sunday. Please do not underestimate the tornado potential
with this event. Our area is classically located in a favorable region for
tornado production with respect to Nate's center. Tropical related tornadoes
often spin up quickly and strike with little or no warning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 6 to 9 feet across southwest
Alabama. Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 4 to 6 feet across
the western Florida Panhandle. The main thing here is to continue to watch the
trends as the forecast changes.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts roughly along and west of I-65 and areas closer to the coast.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts further east of I-65 and further inland.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
Potential impacts include:
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
A high rip current risk will persist leading up to Nate and continuing
a few days after passage of the hurricane due to northward moving swell
energy that will keep the risk very elevated. Please do not go in the
water immediately after Nate's passage!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look for
additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to select
radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should not use cell
phones while operating vehicles.
If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.
Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical
storm force wind.
Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 500 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
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