[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 070039
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-070845-

Tropical Storm Nate Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL162017
739 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NATE TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY EVENING...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
      Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George and Stone
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
      Santa Rosa Coastal
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
      Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Greene, Monroe,
      Perry, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 660 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 630 miles
      south of Pensacola FL
    - 21.4N 85.9W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 22 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane hunter planes have found that Nate has become a little
stronger, and now has maximum sustained winds up to 65 mph. Nate is
expected to reach hurricane strength by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Nate continues moving towards our north
central Gulf Coast Region through late Saturday and brings a quick hit
to our area Saturday night and Sunday. Nate's impacts will likely be
quite significant. Impacts include storm surge inundation, wind,
rainfall and tornadoes. Winds will abruptly increase late Saturday
night and into early Sunday with improving conditions from late Sunday
on. At least some power outages, possibly widespread near where Nate's
center passes, are likely across the region by early Sunday morning.
The highest winds will generally be west of I-65 and closer to the
coast. Storm surge inundation of 3 to 6 feet, possibly as high as
8 feet, is forecast around the Mobile Bay region and Alabama barrier
islands. Lesser amounts of storm surge inundation, 4 to 6 feet, are
forecast further eastward across the western Florida Panhandle. Local
water rises could be sudden and recession slow in the two days
following Nate's passage. Nate will also bring the potential for heavy
rainfall to the area with 4 to 6" of rainfall with totals as high as
8" (especially west of I-65) beginning on Saturday and continuing
through very late Sunday. Tornadoes will also be possible beginning
Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Please do not under-estimate the
tornado potential with this event. Our area is classically located in
a favorable region for tornado production with respect to Nate's
center. Tropical related tornadoes often spin up quickly and strike
with little or no warning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the Mobile Bay region and Mobile and Baldwin County
barrier islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be as high as 4 to 6
feet across the western Florida Panhandle. The main thing here is to
continue to watch the trends as the forecast changes.

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts west
of I-65 and closer to the coast, especially close to where Nate's
center tracks. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
east of I-65 and further inland.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous flooding having possible limited
impacts mainly west of I-65 to include interior southeast Mississippi
and closer to the coast west of Ft. Walton Beach. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
A high rip current risk will persist leading up to Nate and a few days
after passage due to northward moving swell energy that will keep the
risk very elevated. Please do not go in the water immediately after
Nate's passage!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look for
additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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