[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Oct 6 17:01:02 CDT 2017
WTUS84 KMOB 062200
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-070600-
Tropical Storm Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Mobile AL AL162017
500 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017
This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.
...NATE TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued and the Storm Surge
Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning for Escambia
Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal
- A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Mobile Inland
- A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Butler, Choctaw,
Crenshaw, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Inland,
and Wilcox
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Greene,
Monroe, Perry, Washington, and Wayne
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, Mobile Coastal, and Mobile Inland
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for George and Stone
- A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
Watch are in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and
Santa Rosa Coastal
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Greene, Monroe,
Perry, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 730 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 710 miles
south of Pensacola FL
- 20.3N 85.7W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 21 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Nate continues moving towards our North central Gulf Coast Region
through late Saturday. The storm will be a quick hit Saturday night
and Sunday. Nate's impacts will likely be quite significant. Impacts
include storm surge inundation, wind, rainfall and tornadoes. Winds
will abruptly increase late Saturday night and into early Sunday with improving
conditions from late Sunday on. At least modest power outages, possibly
widespread near where Nate's center passes, are likely across the
region by early Sunday morning. The highest winds will generally be
west of I-65 and closer to the coast. Storm surge inundation of 3 to 6
feet, possibly as high as 8 feet around the Mobile Bay region and
Alabama barrier islands is now forecast. Lesser amounts of storm surge
inundation, 4 to 6 feet are forecast further eastward across the
western Florida Panhandle. Local water rises could be sudden and
recession slow in the two days following Nate's passage. Nate will also
bring the potential for heavy flooding rainfall to the area (4 to 6"
of rainfall with totals as high as 8", especially west of I-65)
beginning on Saturday and continuing through very late Sunday.
Tornadoes will also be possible beginning Saturday and continuing into
Sunday. Please do not under-estimate the tornado potential with this
event. Our area is classically located in a favorable region for
tornado production with respect to Nate's center. Tropical-related
tornadoes often spin up quickly and strike with little or not warning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the Mobile Bay region and Mobile and Baldwin County
barrier islands. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to now be as high as 4 to 6
feet across the western Florida Panhandle. The main thing here is to
continue to watch the trends as the forecast changes.
* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts west
of I-65 and closer to the coast, especially close to where Nate's
center tracks. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across est of I-65 and further inland.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts mainly west of I-65 to include interior southeast
Mississippi and closer to the coast west of Ft. Walton Beach.
- Moderate rainfall flooding could prompt several evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation
at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some
streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and
retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous.
Some road and bridge closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
A high rip current risk will persist leading up to Nate and a few days
after passage due to northward moving swell energy that will keep the
risk very elevated. Please do not go in the water immediately after
Nate's passage!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look
for additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 8 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
/23 Medlin and /12 Shepherd
$$
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