[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060602 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Updated for 2 AM EDT Intermediate Advisory

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nate is centered once again over water near 16.1N
84.8W at 06/0600 UTC, about 65 nm east-southeast of Isla Guanaja
Honduras, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts
to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N-
18N between 81W-86W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends from 15N34W to 08N37W, moving west
at 10-15 kt. The wave has remained low-amplitude since emerging
off the African coast several days ago. An ASCAT pass this
morning indicated fresh to strong low-level cyclonic winds
focused around the wave's axis with strong to near gale force
southerly winds noted south of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 90 nm of 10N37W.

A tropical wave axis extends from 18N42W to 09N49W, moving west
at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between
40W-50W. Isolated convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 10N32W to 08N39W to
09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between
26W-32W, and from 06N-10N between 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

North-northeasterly flow aloft persists over most of the basin
between an upper-level anticyclone centered over northern Mexico
and an upper-level low centered over the Yucatan peninsula, with
a sharp trough axis extending to the Florida panhandle. A 1006
mb low is in the SE Gulf near 24N84W. A surface trough southward
across the Yucatan Channel. Widespread light-moderate convection
is observed south of 27N and east of 87W. The low and associated
trough are expected to move westward through Fri night. By early
Saturday, Tropical Storm Nate is forecast to move northward into
the south-central Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Primary focus remains Tropical Storm Nate across the western
Caribbean and Central America. Please refer to the section above
for details. In addition, a surface trough embedded within a low
pressure centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico extends southward
through the Yucatan Channel to north of Nate. This feature is
enhancing convection across the area west of 80W. Outside of the
influence of Tropical Storm Nate, moderate to occasionally fresh
trades prevail east of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Partly cloudy skies continue across the island. A surface trough
to the northeast extends into the Mona Passage, and an upper-
level trough currently over Puerto Rico will introduce scattered
showers and thunderstorms into the area Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

South-southwesterly flow prevails over the western Atlantic with
a favorable upper-level divergent environment W of 72W enhancing
scattered showers north of 26N. A weak tropical wave is analyzed
as a surface trough extending from 24N63W to the Mona Passage
near 18N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
from 19N-23N between 60W-65W. A stationary front in the central
Atlantic extends from 32N38W to 23N53W. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are occurring within 150 nm either side of the
front. A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered
near 26N23W prevails across the eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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