[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 060346
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061200-

Tropical Storm Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL162017
1046 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**TROPICAL STORM NATE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, George, Mobile Central,
      Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Santa Rosa
      Coastal, and Stone

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, George, Mobile Central,
      Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Santa Rosa
      Coastal, and Stone

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 1050 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 1030
      miles south of Pensacola FL
    - 15.8N 84.7W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 325 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nate is about to move offshore of the eastern coast of
Honduras and will move northwestward then northward towards the north
central Gulf coast through late Saturday.  Nate will bring the
potential for heavy rains to the area beginning on Saturday and
continuing through at least Sunday.  A flash flood watch may soon be
required for most of the area for potentially life threatening
flooding.  Tornadoes will also be possible beginning Saturday into
Saturday night for much of the area.  Southerly winds will increase
to 20 to 35 mph late Saturday night in the tropical storm watch area
with frequent gusts in excess of tropical storm force.  Sustained
tropical storm force winds are expected Sunday morning which then
gradually diminish Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.  Storm surge
inundation of 2 to 4 feet, possibly higher, is likely along coastal
areas of Mobile and Baldwin counties, with much lower values over the
western Florida panhandle but please stay tuned for potential updates
regarding this.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
extreme southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest Alabama and coastal
portions of the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal areas of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi..
Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or
water hazards from tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation,
especially if being officially recommended. Relocate to a
predetermined shelter or safe destination.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home, an upper floor of a high rise building, or on
a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take enough supplies for you
and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the water, in a low lying or poor drainage area, in a valley or
near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher
ground

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and other family members know of your
intentions and whereabouts for surviving the storm. For emergency
purposes, have someone located away from the threatened area serve as
your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others.
Keep cell phones handy and well charged.

Be a Good Samaritan and check on those who may not be fully aware of
the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 2 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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