[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 14.5N 84.0W at 05/1800 UTC
or about 45 nm NW of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua and about 45 nm SSW
of Puerto Lempira Honduras moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is from 11N-19N between 78W-86W. See
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N33W to 13N30W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave has remained low-amplitude since emerging off the
African coast several days ago. A recent ASCAT pass around
05/1118 UTC indicated fresh to strong low-level cyclonic winds
focused around the wave axis with strong to near gale force
southerly winds noted S of the ITCZ axis analyzed along 08N in the
vicinity of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-12N between 26W-38W.

A tropical wave extends from 09N47W to 17N41W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb between 40W-48W
with a recent ASCAT pass around 05/1112 UTC indicating a defined
wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-18N between
36W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N between
44W-53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
10N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N19W to 09N30W to 07N40W to 08N44W. Besides the convection
associated with the tropical waves...no significant deep
convection is occurring at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
North-northeasterly flow aloft persists over the Gulf basin this
afternoon between an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered
over northern Mexico and Texas...and an upper level low centered
over the Yucatan peninsula with a sharp trough axis extending N-NE
to over the Florida Big Bend region near 29N83W. The troughing
supports a 1007 mb low centered across the Florida Straits near
24N82W with a surface trough extending to the south across western
Cuba and to the N-NE to near Lake Okeechobee to east of
Jacksonville Florida in the SW North Atlc. Isolated showers and
tstms are occurring S of 28N E of 86W...including much of the
Florida peninsula where upper level divergence is maximized. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of relatively drier
NE flow aloft and fresh to strong easterly winds on the southern
periphery of surface ridging anchored across the SE CONUS and
eastern Texas. The low and associated troughing is expected to
move westward into central Gulf waters by Friday with convective
precipitation impacting much of the Florida peninsula and eastern
two-thirds of the Gulf through Friday night into Saturday. By
early Saturday...Tropical Storm Nate is forecast to have emerged
into the south-central Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primary focus remains across the western Caribbean and Central
America as Tropical Storm Nate tracks NW. In addition...broad
surface troughing embedded within lower pressure across the
western Caribbean extends southward from a 1007 mb low centered
across the Florida Straits. The surface trough extends from 23N82W
to 21N82W to 18N84W. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm
Nate...scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms
are occurring from 10N-20N between 72W-85W...with widely scattered
showers and tstms occurring elsewhere from 08N-22N between 72W-
91W...including Cuba...and a large portion of Central America.
Otherwise...farther east...a surface trough extends from the NW
corner of Puerto Rico near 18N67W N-NE to across the Atlc waters
providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms across
the eastern Caribbean waters N of 13N between 64W-68W. This
activity is supported aloft by an upper level low centered near
13N64W and associated upper level troughing extending to the N-NW
to over Puerto Rico. Finally...outside of the influence of
Tropical Storm Nate...moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail
E of 72W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies remain mostly fair across interior portions with
cloudiness increasing throughout the daytime hours and isolated to
scattered showers possible through the evening. Surface troughing
to the east approaching the Mona Passage region and an upper level
trough currently over Puerto Rico will introduce scattered showers
and tstms late tonight into Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
South-southwesterly flow prevails over the SW North Atlc with a
favorable upper level divergent environment generally W of 70W
with scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms occurring N
of 23N W of 72W. This activity is focused east of a surface
trough analyzed across the Florida peninsula from offshore of
Jacksonville near 30N80W to Lake Okeechobee to a 1007 mb low
centered across the Florida Straits near 24N82W. Farther east...
remnant energy from a weakened tropical wave is analyzed as a
surface trough extending from Puerto Rico near 19N67W to 26N63W.
Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from
20N-26N between 56W-66W. This activity links up with the western
extent of a stationary front that enters the discussion area near
32N39W to 26N45W to 25N60W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring within 150 nm either side of the front. Elsewhere...a
broad surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near
25N26W prevails across the eastern Atlc.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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