[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 051446
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands from
Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.3 North,
longitude 83.7 West.  Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through
Friday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move
across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.  The center
is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today while the center is
over land.  Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches
Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight.  Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico
Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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