[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 mb low in the SW Caribbean centered near 11N81W is
showing signs of organization. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of the low center.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and this
system is expected to become a tropical depression within the
next two days. This disturbance should move north-northwest into
the NW Caribbean Sea then reach the southern Gulf of Mexico by
this weekend. This system will likely produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days. There is a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

A gale warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of
the Bahamas. Scatterometer data showed a large area of 25-30 kt
winds east of the Florida peninsula, with a narrow band of winds
more than 30 kt from 30N75W to the Florida coast near Melbourne.
Expect frequent gusts to 35 kt through mid-day due to a tight
pressure gradient.

Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected in the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Scatterometer data at 0325 UTC showed a large area of 25-
30 kt winds west of the Florida peninsula to near 88W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N35W to
08N38W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave remains low amplitude and
coincides with modest troughing at 700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery
indicates this wave is embedded in an area of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N-14N
between 35W-40W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the E Caribbean extends from 23N61W to 09N62W
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb
troughing and continues to interact with an upper-level low
centered near 16N61W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east
side of the upper low are supporting widely scattered moderate
convection over the Atlantic from 11N-22N between 57W-62W.

A tropical wave in the W Caribbean extends from 23N81W to 12N83W
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is moving into an area of strong
northerly upper level winds associated with an anticyclone near
27N98W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 16N-23N between 75W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along the African coast between 16W-18W.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N18W to
08N49W to 11N60W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-13N between 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A gale warning for frequent gusts to 35 kt is in effect for the
NE Gulf. See above. Surface ridging over the northern Gulf is
creating a tight pressure gradient with 20-30 kt winds likely
during the next 24 hours. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf
of Mexico from 24N99W to 17N94W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm of this trough. In the upper levels, a small
upper level high is centered over the S Texas near 28N96W. A
good amount of upper level moisture is along the Texas and
Mexico coasts. Expect over the next 24 hours for convection with
wind gusts to advect over S Florida. Also expect the surface
trough to persist over the Bay of Campeche with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with an trailing low in the SW Caribbean has a
high chance is tropical cyclone development. See above. In
addition, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough
extends from S Guatemala to N Costa Rica to N Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over all of
Central America S of 20N. Otherwise, 10-20 kt tradewinds are
over the Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Hispaniola is between tropical waves. Skies remain mostly fair,
with some showers are over the southern part of the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale warning is in effect east of Florida. A surface trough
extends from the N Bahamas near 26N78W to central Cuba near
21N80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm
E of the trough axis. Squalls associated with the trough will
produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over
portions of the Bahamas and southern Florida the next couple of
days. Elsewhere, a stationary front extends from 30N50W to
26N74W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the front. Broad surface ridging extends SW from a surface high
centered over the Azores near 40N26W. The ridging dominates the
Atlantic N of 22N and E of 45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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