[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 08N24W to 15N24W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with modest
troughing at 700 mb between 22W-29W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-11N between 23W-32W.

A tropical wave extends from 09N47W to 21N52W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 44W-
58W and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered
near 18N51W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the
upper low are supporting a large area of scattered moderate
convection from 09N-21N between 37W-51W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N77W to 17N75W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave is also interacting with an upper level low centered
near 18N75W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 11N-18N
between 71W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 10N20W to 06N33W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N33W to 06N39W
to 09N47W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves...scattered moderate convection is 07N-10N between 50W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level low is centered over the SW Gulf waters near 20N92W
that supports overall gentle to moderate easterly winds across
much of the basin this morning. The low supports a surface trough
extending from 19N92W to 23N89W providing focus for scattered
showers and strong tstms across the Yucatan peninsula and SE Gulf
waters S of 25N between 84W-90W. To the north of the upper level
feature...a 1010 mb low is centered near 28N90W with a warm front
extending E-NE to 29N89W to 28N84W then becomes stationary to the
central Florida peninsula near 28N82W. Widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring N of 27N E of 90W in the
vicinity of the front...with fresh to strong E-NE winds noted
generally along and N of the front. Furthermore...a surface
trough remains analyzed along the Mexico coastline from 23N97W to
19N95W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of
the boundary. Looking ahead...the low will gradually weaken as
the warm front lifts north-northwestward through Monday night.
Surface ridging will build across the SE CONUS...NE Gulf
waters...and SW North Atlc waters Monday and as a result generate
a stronger pressure gradient and increase E winds across much of
the NE Gulf. By Monday night into early Tuesday areal coverage of
this wind field is expected to expand and influence the northern
two-thirds of the basin as fresh to strong easterly winds will
prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A pair of upper level lows are noted on water vapor imagery this
morning over the basin and are driving much of the ongoing active
weather and convection. One upper level low is centered over the
SW Gulf of Mexico near 20N92W and supports scattered showers and
strong tstms from 16N-22N between 84W-89W. Additional scattered
showers and tstms are occurring S of 16N between 80W-86W within a
favorable divergent environment over the SW Caribbean and portions
of Central America. Farther east...the other upper level low is
centered near 18N75W and continues to work in tandem with a
tropical wave analyzed along 76W providing scattered showers and
widely scattered tstms between 70W-80W. Otherwise...moderate E-SE
trades will persist through Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently the island remains under the influence of an upper
level low centered near 18N75W and a tropical wave moving W in
tandem with the upper level feature. The upper level low will move
SW ahead of the tropical wave and continue generating scattered
showers and isolated tstms across the region through Monday night.
To the north of the island...a surface trough extends from 20N72W
to 24N69W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 20N-24N
between 64W-74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N61W SW into
a 1014 mb low near 28N71W then stationary to 26N75W to the Florida
coast near 27N80W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. This front
lies to the south of a strong ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered across the Delmarva. To the south...a fractured piece of
tropical wave energy is analyzed as a surface trough from 20N72W
to 24N69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
from 19N-24N between 64W-74W. Otherwise...broad surface ridging
extends SW from a 1028 mb high centered E of the Azores near
40N19W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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