[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force north to northeast winds will continue today over the
areas of AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. The outlook for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1800 UTC,
consists of the threat of severe northerly gale winds over AGADIR,
TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas
Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-
METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 12N26W
to 03N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of favorable wind shear, and is in a moderate
moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW
imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust
intrusion in the wave environment. Shallow moisture and upper
level diffluence support scattered showers from 04N to 12N between
24W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
13N51W to 04N54W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, and is in a moderate
moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW
imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and dust
intrusion in the wave environment. Shallow moisture and upper
level diffluence support scattered showers from 09N to 13N
between 50W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 18N74W to 09N79W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of mainly unfavorable wind shear. However,
the CIRA LPW imagery show abundant moisture associated with this
wave that is supports scattered showers and tstms across Jamaica
and adjacent waters. Similar convection is ahead of the wave axis
in the SW Caribbean S of 15N associated with the EPAC monsoon
trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N16W
and continues SW to 06N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
begins near 08N31W and continues along 05N40W to 05N51W. Aside
from the convection associated with the two tropical waves,
scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 04N to 13N E
of 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low is over the far NW Gulf and over the Yucatan
peninsula while the rest of the Gulf is under upper level ridging
along with dry air subsidence, which is supporting fair weather
across the basin. A line of heavy showers and tstms is across
portions of northern and central Florida being supported by middle
level diffluence. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails over the
basin being anchored by a 1019 mb high near 28N84W, which provides
light and gentle variable flow E of 90W, and mainly light to
moderate SE winds W of 90W. Little change in the current synoptic
pattern is expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a tropical wave over
the central Caribbean, supporting showers over Jamaica and the SW
Caribbean. See the waves section for further details. A strong
pressure gradient between high pressure extending from the Atlc
into the northern Caribbean and lower pressure associated with the
wave support fresh to strong winds from 12N to 17N between 71W and
80W. These winds are forecast to continue over the weekend,
however increasing to near gale along the coast of Colombia and
the Gulf of Venezuela. An upper level short-wave trough and
abundant moisture associated with the passage of the tropical
wave support scattered heavy showers and tstms over Hispaniola
that is forecast to continue through Saturday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level short-wave trough and abundant moisture associated
with the passage of the tropical wave support scattered heavy
showers and tstms over Hispaniola that is forecast to continue
through Saturday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Another tropical
wave is about to come off from Africa. Refer to the tropical
waves section above for details. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by
a 1035 mb high centered just NE of the Azores near 41N25W.
Generally moderate trades will continue around the southern
periphery of this high over the Atlantic from 10N and 25N between
30W and 60W through the next 24-48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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