[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 29/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of near gale or gale in AGADIR and
TARFAYA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W/16W from 21N
southward. This position is a median location, and based on long-
loop satellite imagery. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 11N to 17N between 13W and 16W, from Guinea to Mauritania.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 04N
to 13N between Africa and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 06N to 14N between 26W and 40W.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 16N southward, moving westward
15 knots, across Puerto Rico. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 90 nm on either side of 17N56W
13N61W 10N67W. isolated moderate from 12N between 52W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. This wave reaches Honduras,
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 12N to 16N between 80W and 84W.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W, from 19N southward, across the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is along 08N17W 10N26W. The ITCZ is along
10N26W 11N31W 09N36W 07N39W 05N48W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere, away from the
tropical waves, from 10N southward between 33W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the area that stretches
from east Texas, into the Gulf of Mexico that is from 90W
westward. A cold front passes through 32N74W to inland Florida
near 29N82W. A dissipating stationary front passes through the
Florida Gulf coast near 29N, to the coastal plains from the
Florida Panhandle to SW Louisiana. A surface trough extends from
the upper Texas Gulf of Mexico coast, to Mexico near 19N96W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 24N northward from 90W westward.

Broad surface low pressure covers the area from the upper Texas
Gulf coast to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KHHV, KVAF, and KEMK.

IFR: KHQI, KVQT, KEIR, and KSPR.

MVFR: KVBS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: heavy rain is in Bay City and Galveston. light rain is in
Hebbronville. MVFR in parts of the Houston metropolitan area and
surrounding smaller communities. some towering cumulus clouds are
in parts of the middle coastal plains. LOUISIANA: heavy rain in
Patterson. MVFR from Lafayette into parts of the SW corner of the
state, and from Baton Rouge to the NW corner of Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: rainshowers from Hattiesburg
southward. FLORIDA: rain and thunder in Milton. rain in parts of
the Panama City metropolitan area. areas of MVFR from Perry
westward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N
northward from 80W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to
the trough that is associated with the Atlantic Ocean 31N57W
cyclonic circulation center and trough that reaches 23N68W.

A weak upper level trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate inland from
southern Belize to 18N in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The monsoon trough is along 08N76W in Colombia, beyond NW Costa
Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N
southward from 77W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.25 in
Trinidad, 0.11 in Freeport in the Bahamas and for San Juan in
Puerto Rico, 0.07 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.01 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW-to-W wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo:
VFR. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 2000 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago
and Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of NW-to-W wind flow for most of the day, with cyclonic wind flow
and an E-to-W oriented trough at the end of the day. Day two will
start with the trough and cyclonic wind flow. Anticyclonic wind
flow and an anticyclonic circulation center will replace the
trough for much of the last two-thirds of day two. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that SE-to-E wind flow, to the south of
an Atlantic Ocean ridge, will move across the area for the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow,
mixed with an inverted trough, will span the area for the next 48
hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 880 nm to the west of the western edge of the Canary
Islands. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to 10N41W.
Rainshowers are possible from 14N northward between 30W and 50W,
in scattered to broken low level clouds.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is 31N57W, about 400
nm to the E of Bermuda. An upper level trough extends from the
cyclonic center to 27N57W, 24N60W, and 23N68W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N northward between 50W
and 60W.

A cold front passes through 32N74W to inland Florida near 29N82W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 240 nm to the NW of the line that passes through
32N65W 29N70W 26N79W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between Africa and the Bahamas. A 1032 mb high pressure center is
near 40N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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