[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis just off the coast of Africa along
18W from 12N to 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Low-level
moisture is limited within this wave, therefore, no convection is
associated with this feature at this time.

A tropical wave has its axis from 11N32W to 01N34W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Last visible satellite imagery and TPW data
reveals that the wave remains embedded within a very moist
environment, except for over its eastern region where Saharan dry
air and dust is present. Isolated moderate convection is noted
north of 07N between 34W-37W.

A broad tropical wave has its axis tilted from 15N55W to 06N59W,
moving westward 15-20 kt. This wave continues to be easily
identifiable on satellite imagery as having the typical
configuration of waves observed later during the season. It is
detected in the model fields, and is further supported by the
latest diagnostic model analysis. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N-15N between 53W-64W. The wave is forecast to
continue moving west affecting the eastern and central Caribbean
waters through Thursday.

A tropical wave is moving into the western Caribbean Sea with its
axis along 81W from 08N to 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This
wave is also evident in satellite imagery, and continues to mark
the leading surge of very deep atmospheric moisture as seen in
TPW data. Isolated moderate convection is observed in the vicinity
of this wave between 77W-83W. The wave will move across the
remainder of the western Caribbean Sea through Wednesday, and
inland Central America Wednesday night.

A tropical wave is just west of the Yucatan Peninsula near 91W
and south of 22N, and extends southward to inland southeastern
Mexico, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave has contributed to
the typical diurnal convection that occurs over the Yucatan
peninsula. Increasing clusters of scattered strong convection
are noted over much of the interior of the Yucatan peninsula
as well as the northern portion of Guatemala. This activity is
beginning to spread into the far eastern section of Mexico.
This wave will most likely become ill-defined over the SW Gulf on
Wednesday, however the southern extent of the wave is expected
to continue on westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W,
and continues southwest to 08N29W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone then extends from 06N35W to 10N53W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level trough axis is over the far northwest Gulf,
while a surface trough is along the Texas coast. The combination
of these features along with the presence of diffluent flow aloft
east of the mid-upper level trough continues to support isolated
showers and thunderstorms mainly north of 24N and west of 89W. A
stationary front is analyzed from NE Florida southwest to near
Cross City, Florida and to 29N86W where it becomes diffuse from
there to just east of southeastern Louisiana. The shower and
thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf is forecast to remain
active through today, then shift northeast by tonight and
Thursday as the mid/upper level trough slides eastward. The
stationary frontal boundary is forecast to gradually become
diffuse through the morning hours, with the remnants lifting back
to the north through tonight. A tropical wave is over the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Associated convection is described in the section
above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature presently in the basin is a tropical wave
currently over the western Caribbean, and the near-future arrival
of another tropical wave which is approaching the Lesser Antilles
at this time. These features are discussed in the section above.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, fair
weather prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin. The pressure gradient is forecast
to tighten over portions of the far south-central Caribbean
beginning tonight and continuing through Thursday night inducing
strong to near-gale force east winds over this area, with the
near-gale force winds expected across and near the Gulf of
Venezuela.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Little
change is expected in the present weather pattern through the next
24 hours. Convection is expected once again by the end of the week
as a tropical wave approaches.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Refer to the section above for details. A broad mid to upper
trough extends southwestward from along the eastern seaboard to
the far northwest portion of the basin. It supports a stationary
front that extends through 32N75W to 30N81W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted north of the Bahamas and west of
about 75W. This activity will continue through much of today and
tonight as the surface boundary weakens, and the mid to upper
trough slides eastward while it broadens out further. A surface
trough extends from 30N56W to 26N57W with scattered showers. This
trough is a reflection of an upper-level low centered in the same
area. A broad high pressure prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 36N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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