[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This position is based on
satellite imagery and diagnostic data. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N to 13N
between 14W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N southward
between 40W and 45W. Scattered strong from 08N to 11N between 46W
and 52W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots, across Puerto Rico. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers may be possible with this wave. No
signficant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite
imagery.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered to moderate to strong from 13N to 17N between 82W and
86W, encompassing inland and coastal waters areas from Nicaragua
to Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is present across Africa, but it does not reach
the Atlantic Ocean at this moment. The ITCZ is along 08N27W 09N37W
08N43W, and 05N52W at the coast of French Guiana. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere, away
from the tropical waves, from 05N to 10N between 30W and 37W, and
elsewhere from 11N southward between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to
25N86W. The trough is associated with the current cold front/
stationary front. A cold front is in the coastal waters of Georgia,
and it passes across Northern Florida, to 28N85W in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, toward SE Louisiana, and becoming
stationary across southern Louisiana. A surface trough also is
along 28N between 92W and the Texas Gulf coast. Isolated moderate
rainshowers from 28N north in Florida, northward, between 74W and
83W, mostly in the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward between 74W
and 79W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico
from 27N northward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, especially from the area of the upper level trough,
southwestward, into the SW corner of the area. One surface trough
is along the Mexico coast from the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec to 24N97W. A second surface trough extends from the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to 26N91W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 25N southward
between 90W and the Mexico coast.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHQI.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Harlingen. earlier light rain has ended for
the moment at the NAS in Corpus Christi. light rain in Rockport.
MVFR in Port Lavaca and Bay City. some MVFR observations are
around the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller
communities. LOUISIANA: MVFR at Port Fourchon. FLORIDA: earlier
rain and thunder in Brooksville have ended for the moment. rain
and thunder everywhere across the Tampa/St. Petersburg
metropolitan area. IFR and moderate rain in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the NW
of the line that runs from SE Cuba, to 17N81W, to central Panama.
Convective precipitation: scattered to moderate to strong from
13N to 17N between 82W and 86W, encompassing inland and coastal
waters areas from Nicaragua to Honduras. A tropical wave also is
along 84W/85W from 21N southward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 76W at the coast of
Colombia and beyond 85W, to the west of Costa Rica. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 13N southward
between 76W and 82W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
26/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.57 in
Guadeloupe, 0.46 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.16 in Kingston in
Jamaica, and 0.10 in Merida in Mexico, 0.01 in Trinidad, and a
TRACE in Montego Bay in Jamaica.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: nearby rainshowers.
few cumulonimbus. earlier light rain has ended for the moment.
Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling
1800 feet. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 2000 feet. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that the wind flow for day
one will be from the SW for the first half of the day, and then it
will be from the west during the second half of the day. Day two
will consist of W wind flow for the first half of the day,
followed by NW wind flow for the second half of the day. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist of
anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge. Day two will consist of
slightly cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center will be about 200 nm to the ENE of the center of Puerto
Rico at the start of day one. The cyclonic center will move
northwestward, and end up about 300 nm to the north of the center
of Hispaniola just before the end of day one. The cyclonic center
will dissipate, giving a trough that is angled toward the eastern
part of the Dominican Republic at the end of day one. Expect SE
wind flow during day one for Hispaniola. Anticyclonic wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during day two. Expect slight cyclonic
wind flow at the end of day two, with a possible inverted trough.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 500 nm to the west of the center of the Canary Islands.
Rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between 20W and 30W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is 27N54W, about 850
nm to the NE of the center of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward between
44W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 22N northward
between 50W and 64W.

A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas toward NW Cuba.
Rainshowers have developed and weakened already from 22N to 24N
between 75W and 77W, to the SE of Andros Island in the Bahamas.

A cold front is in the coastal waters of Georgia, and it passes
across Northern Florida, to 28N85W in the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, toward SE Louisiana, and becoming stationary across
southern Louisiana. Isolated moderate rainshowers from 28N north
in Florida, northward, between 74W and 83W, mostly in the Atlantic
Ocean from 30N northward between 74W and 79W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between Africa and the Bahamas. A surface ridge passes through
34N23W, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 33N48W,
to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 30N68W, and to
27N76W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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