[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 13N21W
to 03N21W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 12 hours. The wave is
in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a very moist
environment and is under a divergent flow aloft, which is
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms from 02N-09N E of
30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
16N33W to 02N39W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear.
However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of
Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection N
of 8.5N. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms associated
with the ITCZ are from 01N-07.5N between 33W and 47W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 18N57W to inland Guyana near 06N59W, moving W at 15-20 kt
within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to
neutral wind shear S of 11N and is in a very moist environment
with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Convection has
increased within the last 6 hours to scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms from 11N-18N between 56W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N73W to inland Colombia near 10N74W, moving west at 15
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
unfavorable wind shear and a deep layer dry environment that
hinder deep convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 11N16W to
09N20W to 08N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins
near 08N27W and continues to 08N36W, then resumes W of a tropical
wave near 03N41W and continues to 03N51W. For convection
information see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that
extends SW across the north-central and NE Gulf, thus supporting
light to gentle variable winds in that region. An upper level low
that was in the Bay of Campeche Saturday is now over the NW Gulf
waters. Upper level divergence being generated between the low SE
periphery and a broad upper ridge over the EPAC waters just S of
Mexico support numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 23.5N,
including the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough extends from
25N90W to 18N92W. This convective activity is also being
supported by moisture inflow from tropical storm Dora located in
the EPAC waters S-SW of Acapulco Mexico. Heavy showers and tstms
will continue in the SW Gulf and just started in the NW basin
associated with the upper low. This shower activity is forecast
to continue at least through Tuesday. Otherwise, a weak frontal
boundary over the southern United States will drift into the
northern Gulf coast today, increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the northern Gulf coastal waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms are in the far NW
Caribbean associated with the rainbands of tropical storm Dora
located in the EPAC waters S of Acapulco Mexico. Numerous heavy
showers and tstms are over Caribbean waters between Colombia and
Panama associated with the EPAC monsoon trough, which extends
across Panama and connect with a 1008 mb low over Colombia. A
tropical wave moves across the central basin, thus supporting
fresh to near gale force winds from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W
and fresh to strong between 68W and 77W. These winds are forecast
to prevail through tonight. Otherwise, a tropical wave E of the
Lesser Antilles has started to generate isolated heavy showers and
tstms across the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean waters. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to isolated showers are affecting the Island today due
to a tropical wave moving across Haiti. These showers are forecast
to continue through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Otherwise,
the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered
near the Azores near 37N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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