[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
607 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 17N28W
to 05N29W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However,
the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of
Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection at
the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N51W to 04N52W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear, is in
a moderate moist environment with some patches of dry air
according to CIRA LPW, and is under a region of upper level
divergence. These factors support scattered showers and isolated
tstms from 05N to 15N between 48W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
15N64W to inland Venezuela, moving west at 10-15 knots within the
last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear.
However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave environment hinder convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N13W to 08N16W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 08N17W and
continues to 06N27W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N31W
and continues along 03N40W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 03S-07N between 33W-48W. Numerous heavy showers and
scattered tstms are off the coast of Africa from 04N-12N E of
17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable weather conditions are almost basin-wide being supported
by surface high pressure extending SW from the W Atlc and dry air
subsidence from aloft as indicated by Water Vapor imagery. The
ridge supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin,
which are forecast to continue through Sunday. A middle to upper
level low centered W of the Yucatan Peninsula is already
supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms over the Bay of
Campeche with possible gusty winds. The low will move W today and
then NW towards Texas adjacent waters generating in its path
heavy showers and tstms over the W Gulf this weekend. Otherwise,
by tonight into Sunday...a weak frontal boundary is expected to
impact the northern waters as it stalls along 30N and dissipates
by Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered over the E Bay of Campeche continue
to support isolated showers over western Honduras and the NW
Caribbean W of 85W. Heavy showers continue across Guatemala and
Belize associated with a broad area of low pressure in the EPAC with
high chances of becoming a tropical cyclone this weekend. A tropical
wave is in the SE Caribbean, however lacking convection due to
abundant Saharan dry air and dust in the region. The northern
portion of this wave is analyzed as a surface trough across the
Leeward Islands where it generates isolated showers. Otherwise,
fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central basin,
increasing to near gale force on Sunday as the tropical wave moves
into this area. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. Little
change is expected thereafter for the early portion of next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly clear skies prevail across the island as surface ridging
to the N across the SW North Atlc remains in place providing
mostly fair weather conditions. However, a surface trough moving
along the S-SW periphery of the Atlc surface ridge will bring
moisture across the region, thus supporting showers across the
Island Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered offshore of NE
Florida that continues to support a 1021 mb high centered near
30N65W, which is forecast to dissipate tonight. Otherwise, the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of surface ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high centered N of the
Azores near 39N27W. There are two tropical waves in the basin. See
that section above for further details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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