[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 220245
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cindy's overall convective pattern has changed little since the
previous advisory and still resembles a subtropical cyclone.
However, earlier this evening a convective band wrapped around into
the southwestern quadrant and produced a sustained wind of 56 kt, a
gust of 65 kt, and a pressure of 991.9 mb at elevated oil rig KHQI.
Using an adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory
intensity. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be
investigating the cyclone shortly.

The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt.  The latest model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no
significant changes were made on the advisory cycle. Cindy should
turn northward early Thursday morning as the cyclone moves through a
break in the deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from the
Atlantic Ocean westward along the Gulf coast to Louisiana and
Mississippi. Landfall is expected near the Louisiana-Texas border in
6-12 hours.  After landfall occurs, Cindy is forecast to turn
northward, and by 24-36 hours should accelerate northeastward across
the Tennessee River Valley and merge with a frontal system by 72 h.

Little change in strength is expected before Cindy makes landfall.
Thereafter, gradual weakening should occur until the cyclone
merges with a cold front over the eastern United States.

The primary threat associated with Cindy will be heavy rainfall,
which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and also well
inland. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products
from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 28.6N  93.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 30.1N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0000Z 32.2N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1200Z 34.2N  90.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/0000Z 36.1N  85.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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