[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, in the Gulf of Mexico, at
21/1800 UTC, is near 27.7N 92.9W, or about 150 nm to the SW of
Morgan City Louisiana, and about 140 NM to the SE of Galveston,
Texas. Cindy is moving NW westward, 310 degrees, 08 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 knots.
The minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Please read the NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 40W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is very
apparent in the Total Precipitable Water imagery as well as the
Tropical Wave Diagnostics from 700 mb. However, there is little to
no signature of the wave at the surface. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate from 05N to 10N between 40W and
44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 56W from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is subtle, only
showing up in the Tropical Wave Diagnostics from 700 mb. There is
little to no signature of the wave at the surface, nor is it
apparent in the Total Precipitable Water imagery. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate is from 05N to 08N between 54W
and 58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 72W from 21N to 10N,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave was the one that spun up
Tropical Storm Bret, but was dropped from the map. Now that Bret
has devolved back to a tropical wave, we are reintroducing the
wave. The wave is very apparent both at the surface, at 700 mb in
the Tropical Wave Diagnostics, and in the Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate from 15N to
28N between 70W and 75W. Maximum surface winds are currently 20
to 30 kt, as observed by an ASCAT scatterometer and buoy 42058.
These winds should diminish to 20 kt or less as the wave moves
westward and weakens.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 14N17W to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 0923W to
07N38W. A small segment of the ITCZ is also present from 05N44W to
05N55W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate from 09N to
12N between 14W and 18W and from 07N to 09N between 30W and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cindy is producing scattered moderate to strong
convection within 120 nm of the center in the northwestern
quadrant near southwestern Louisiana/eastern Texas as well as
from 21N to 27N between 85W and 88W. Numerous showers are also
occurring from the Florida panhandle coast to eastern Louisiana as
observed in the WSR-88D radar network. Away from the tropical
storm, winds and seas are light in the southwestern Gulf. Winds
are 20 to 25 kt out of the south-southeast in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico along with seas 8 to 12 ft. Precipitation, winds, and seas
will diminish in the the Gulf by late on Thursday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough extends along the
southern border of Central America from Guatemala to Panama.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring
from Nicaragua to Costa Rica to Panama and within60 nm of the
coast in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

See above for discussion about tropical wave near 72W, which are
the remnants of Tropical Storm Bret. Winds and seas should
diminish to below 20 kt and 8 ft seas, respectively, by Thursday
afternoon.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... are 0.60
inches at Tegucigalpa in Honduras, 0.27 inches in Curacao, and
0.27 inches in Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tropical wave near 72W - the remnants of Tropical Storm Bret -
are causing scattered showers over Hispaniola today. Numerous
high clouds cover the southern portion of the high, caused by the
moderate convection occurring farther south over the central
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection
can be expected through Thursday over Hispaniola, especially
afternoon hours because of diurnal heating. By Friday, chances for
precipitation should diminish as the wave pushes westward away
from Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb Bermuda/Azores high is centered near 35N49W, north of
our area. The modest pressure gradient south of the high is
producing light 10-20 kt tradewinds across the Atlantic. No
significant areas of convection are occurring away from the
ITCZ/monsoon trough/tropical waves. Little change is expected for
the next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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