[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 2100 UTC, the last advisory for Bret was issued. Its center
is located near 12.0N/67.3W. Minimum pressure is 1008 mb, and
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The remnants of
Bret are moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Scattered moderate convection
extends across portions of northern Venezuela and the eastern Caribbean
between 60W-70W.

As of 2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Cindy is centered over the Gulf of
Mexico near 25.7N/90.6W. Cindy remains nearly stationary. Its
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40
kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extend across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico mainly east
of 90W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
extending from 14N34W to 02N37W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is well defined with sharp troughing indicated at 700
mb. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 34W
and 38W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 12N48W to 02N49W, moving westward at around 15 kt.
This wave is at the leading edge of a deep moisture surge, with
subtle troughing at 700 mb. Isolated showers prevail west of the
axis along 08N.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis
extending from 20N72W to 09N73W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave does not have a strong signature at 850 or 700 mb.
However, the wave has been tracked utilizing infrared satellite
imagery indicating persistent area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and within 90 nm on either side of the wave's
axis affecting Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
12N16W to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N38W to 05N47W. Other
than convection associated with the two tropical waves over the
tropical Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
11N between 20W and 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cindy is over the central Gulf supporting
widespread convection. Please refer to the Special Features
section above for details. A surface trough extends from 24N89W
to 18N88W. This feature combined with Cindy are supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the
Yucatan Peninsula and Channel. Aside from these two features,
winds around the perimeter of the Gulf are cyclonic and mainly
between 15 to 25 kt. Over the next 24 hours, Cindy is expected to
move northwest over the north central Gulf. Heavy rainfall will
follow the system affecting the central Gulf, including land
areas of the central coastal Gulf States.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of T.S. Bret are over the southeastern Caribbean.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. A
tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to the
Tropical Waves section for more details. A surface trough extends
across the Yucatan Peninsula reaching the far west Caribbean with
scattered moderate convection mainly west of 85W. Aside from windsassociated with the remnants of Bret, mainly fresh winds cover
the Caribbean basin, except light winds south of 10N over the
southwest Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours, the trough will
continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase over the central Caribbean as the remnants of Bret make
its way across the southern portion of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is moving across the island supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This activity will continue through
tonight as the wave moves west. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are possible on Wednesday associated with moisture well to the
north of the remnants of T.S. Bret, as is passes to the south of
the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. A broad high pressure covers the
entire Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1030 mb high north of
the area. A weak cold front extends from 34N22W to 24N33W to
26N49W with no significant convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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