[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Bret is located near 11.6N/66.2W,
moving west- northwest at 20 kt. Estimated minimum pressure is
1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts up to 45
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 17N between 60W
and 68W. Bret is expected to weaken below tropical storm strength
over the next day or so. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the
Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

As of 1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Cindy is centered over the Gulf of
Mexico near 25.9N/90.5W, and is nearly stationary. Its minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with
gusts up to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection are
from 20N to 27N between 84W and 87W, and from 27N to 30N between
83W and 91W. Please read the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
extending from 14N32W to 02N35W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is well defined with sharp troughing indicated at 700
mb. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 31W
and 36W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 12N45W to 03N47W, moving westward at around 15 kt.
This wave is at the leading edge of a deep moisture surge, with
subtle troughing at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 09N between 42W and 49W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis
extending from 20N71W to 09N72W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
This wave does not have a strong signature at 850 or 700 mb.
However, the wave has been tracked utilizing infrared satellite
imagery indicating persistent scattered thunderstorms along and
within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
13N16W to 08N22W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to
06N45W, then resumes east of a tropical wave near 06N48W to
05N55W. Other than convection associated with the two tropical
wave over the tropical Atlantic, Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 12N between 13W and 24W, and from 05N to 09N between
32W and 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cindy is over the central Gulf supporting
widespread convection. Please refer to the special features
section above for details. A surface trough extends from 22N88W to
16N87W supporting heavy rainfall over the Yucatan Peninsula and
nearby Gulf waters. Aside from these two features, winds around
the perimeter of the Gulf are cyclonic and mainly between 15 to
25 kt. Scattered showers cover the eastern Gulf well away from the
storm center. Over the next 24 hours Cindy is expected to
move northwest over the north central Gulf. Heavy rainfall will
continue over the central Gulf, including land areas of the north-
central Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Bret is over the southeastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the special features section for more details. A tropical
wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical
waves section for more details. A surface trough extends from
22N88W to 16N88W and is a southern extension of a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with Tropical Storm Cindy to the north.
This trough and surrounding low level convergence supports
scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms across the
western Caribbean, west of 83W. Aside from winds associated with
Bret, mainly fresh winds cover the Caribbean basin today, except
light winds south of 10N over the southwest Caribbean. Over the
next 24 hours the trough will continue to support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the central Caribbean
as Bret, or whatever remains of Bret, makes its way across that
portion of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is moving across the island supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This activity will continue through
tonight as the wave moves west. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday associated with moisture well
to the north of Tropical Storm Bret, as is passes to the south of
the island.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. Scattered thunderstorms over the
Turks and Caicos and surrounding waters are associated with a
tropical wave over the central Caribbean. A broad high pressure
covers the entire Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high north of the
area. A weak cold front extends from 31N26W to 25N35W to 27N49W
with no significant convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

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