[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200607 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

corrected for valid time for T.S. Bret

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 20/0600 UTC, is near 10.3N
62.1W, or about 50 nm to the west of Trinidad. It is moving WNW
westward, 285 degrees, 20 knots. The maximum wind speeds are 35 kt
with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to strong from
10N to 14N between 60W and 65W. Please read the NHC Potential
Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for
more details.

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three at 20/0600 UTC, is
near 24.5N 89.9W, about 325 nm to the south of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. The maximum wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts
to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers
the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Scattered strong is from
the Yucatan Peninsula to the Gulf of Honduras. Please read the NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/33W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 02N to 08N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, most probably
related to the ITCZ, from 02N to 08N between 40W and 52W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are elsewhere from 73W eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N21W and 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N33W
to 03N41W, and 03N51W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong
from 03N to 10N between 13W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 45 nm on either side of 06N23W 04N27W 01N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough passes through southern
Louisiana, to a 27N94W cyclonic circulation center, to the Mexico
coast near 24N98W and 21N105W in Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in much of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 90W westward.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KATP, KVOA, KVKY and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Natchez. MVFR in parts of the Hattiesburg
metropolitan area. ALABAMA: light rain in parts of the Mobile
metropolitan area, and in Gulf Shores with LIFR. FLORIDA: rain
from Cross City westward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 14N68W Caribbean Sea cyclonic
circulation center. Tropical Storm Bret is set to move into the
SE corner of the Caribbean Sea during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N75W in Colombia, through the
eastern sections of Panama, the western sections of Panama, and
then beyond NW Costa Rica. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling
1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: rain and
thunder. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.
La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Punta Cana: MVFR. ceiling
1800 feet. earlier rain and thunder have stopped for the moment.
Santiago: rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto
Plata: light rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of N wind flow, becoming cyclonic, as a N-to-S oriented trough
will move across Hispaniola from the east to the west. Expect
southerly wind flow during the first half of day two, followed by
anticyclonic wind flow during the second half of day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will consist
of the rest of the inverted trough moving through the area
completely, during day one. Day one will end with SE wind flow
moving across Hispaniola. Expect SE wind flow during day two,
with an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of SE-to-E
wind flow. Expect cyclonic wind flow with a separate inverted
trough, during day two. Hispaniola will be on the southern side
of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, to a 14N68W
cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 125 nm of the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic between 68W and 70W.
Rainshowers and thunder still are possible across Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 27N35W. A cold
front passes through 32N25W to 25N40W 27N50W and 31N56W.
Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward
between 23W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W
westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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