[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 200242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud
pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just
to the north of the circulation center.  Earlier microwave imagery
and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the
vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to
the increasing southerly shear.  No change in the current satellite
intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial
intensity remains at 35 kt.  Interaction with the coast of Venezuela
and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough
digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening
trend during the next 24 hours, or so.  The large-scale models
continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in
about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit.  The intensity
forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower
than 6 hours ago.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged
from the previous advisory.  A well-established mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, a more
westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves
within the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 10.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 11.0N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 12.1N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.8N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 13.5N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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