[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/1800 UTC is
near 8.8N 57.8W, or about 207 nm to the ESE of Trinidad, and it
is moving west at 20 knots. Maximum wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Scattered heavy showers with embedded tstms are mainly west of
the low center from 06N to 14N between 55W and 62W. The
disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands and
near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves
through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and
Tuesday. Please read the NHC Potential Tropical Cyclone
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC,
and the Intermediate Public Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

A 1005 mb low pressure center is north of the Yucatan Peninsula,
near 23.4N88.6W with associated surface trough extending from
29N88W to the low center to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N86W.
This disturbance is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms
from 17N to 25N between 82W and 88W, including the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba.
Scattered heavy showers are elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico E of 88W. Gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from
9 feet to 15 feet are several hundred miles east and northeast
of the estimated low center. Gradual development of this system
is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico. There is a high chance for
tropical or subtropical cyclone development during the next two
days. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to
continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next
day or two. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N28W to 02N29W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear and CIRA LPW show a
moderate moist environment with patches of dry air N of 06N
associated with Saharan dry air and dust intrusion. There is no
convection associated with the wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N39W to 03N39W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive
intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to its environment limit
the convection to isolated showers within 120 nm either side of
its axis from 04N to 07N. This convection is being supported by
upper level divergence.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
21N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 20-25 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear. However,
shallow moisture and an upper level divergent environment
support scattered showers and tstms E of 68W, including Puerto
Rico and the Mona Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
08N12W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 05N38W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N42W to 05N50W. Two tropical
waves and a potential tropical cyclone are embedded within the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ. See tropical waves and special features
sections for information about convection. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are off the W coast of Africa from 03N to
10N E of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated area of low pressure covers the eastern Gulf, which
is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms from 17N to 25N
between 82W and 88W, including the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, the
Yucatan channel and western Cuba. Scattered heavy showers are
elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 88W. Gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet are also
associated with this disturbance. Gradual development of this
system is expected today through Tuesday while it moves across
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, and tropical or
subtropical cyclone development is highly possible. Regardless
of development, heavy rains are expected to continue over
portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba during the next day or two. See the
special features section and the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.
Otherwise, gentle to locally fresh N winds are W of 90W along
with fair weather being supported by dry air subsidence from
aloft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous heavy showers with embedded tstms are in the far NW
Caribbean associated with a broad disturbance centered in the E
Gulf of Mexico. This showers are affecting the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula, the Yucatan channel and western Cuba as well as Belize
adjacent waters. Scattered to isolated showers are N of 13N W of
80W. Gale force winds are also associated with this disturbace
due to a tight pressure gradient between the broad cyclonic
circulation and Atlc broad high pressure. See the special
features section and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.
In the SW Caribbean, scattered heavy showers and tstms are S of
15N between 77W and 81W being supported by the monsoon trough.
Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are in the E Caribbean
associated with a tropical wave with axis currently E of Puerto
Rico. See tropical waves section for further details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather is across the Island. However a tropical wave moving
across the E Caribbean will start bringing scattered showers and
tstms over the Island starting this afternoon through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles, the westernmost with the
potential of becoming a tropical storm later today. Please refer
to the Tropical Waves and the special features sections above for
details. Otherwise, broad high pressure covers the entire
Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high N of the area. Otherwise, a
weak cold front extends from 30N30W to 29N45W with no convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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