[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 191757
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast
of the southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico.
This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a
well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles
northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be
marginally conducive for some additional development of this system
during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of
development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central
Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could
be needed for portions of this area later today.

Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and
eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. For more information on this
system, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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