[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 190832
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

The cloud pattern associated with the disturbance hasn't changed
much overall, with a fairly compact cluster of deep convection near
the estimated center location.  The Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB remains at 35 kt, and this value will be used for the advisory
intensity.  The system has well-defined upper-level outflow over
the northern semicircle and vertical shear is forecast by the
dynamical guidance to remain low for the next day or so.  Therefore
some intensification is forecast and the disturbance is likely to
become a tropical cyclone later today.  After the system moves into
the Caribbean, it should encounter an increasingly hostile
environment of strong vertical shear associated with an upper-level
trough over the west-central Caribbean.  The global models are in
good agreement on the system dissipating over the Central
Caribbean, and the official intensity forecast is slightly below
the model consensus at 48-72 h in deference to the global model
predictions.

The initial motion continues to be around 280/20 kt.  The track
forecast philosophy is basically unchanged from the previous
advisory package.  A well-defined ridge to the north of the
disturbance should continue to steer the system westward to
west-northwestward at a fast pace.  By 48-72 hours, a slightly more
westward track is likely while the weakening system moves more with
the low-level tradewind flow.  The official track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate
the system later today.  Observations from the aircraft should
determine whether a well-defined center exists, i.e. whether the
disturbance has become a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z  8.4N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  19/1800Z  9.3N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  20/0600Z 10.4N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 11.5N  64.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 12.4N  67.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 13.5N  74.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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