[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 19/0600 UTC is
near 8.3N 53.5W, or about 550 nm to the ESE of Trinidad. It is
moving westward, 280 degrees, 20 knots. The maximum wind speeds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 knots. The minimum central pressure is
1005 mb. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 08N to 09N between 52W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong from 09N to 12N between 50W and 55W. Please read the NHC
Potential Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC, and the Intermediate Public
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

A 1004 mb low pressure center is in the SE part of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet
to 12 feet, cover the Caribbean Sea from 19N northward between 81W
and 83W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from Guatemala to the Yucatan Peninsula, from Nicaragua to extreme
eastern Honduras, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from
16N to 22N between 84W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico from NW
Cuba at 22N to 26N between 82W and 86W, and in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico from 94W eastward. A surface trough
extends northward from the area of the 1004 mb low pressure
center, toward the Florida Big Bend. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 26N to 31N between 77W in the Atlantic
Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions are forecast
to continue through Monday morning. Gradual development of this
system is expected while it moves slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula, and in the southern or central Gulf of Mexico
on Monday and Tuesday, where it is likely that a tropical or
subtropical cyclone may form. Heavy rains are expected in parts of
of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba during the next several days. The chance
of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next two days is
high. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/27W from 14N
southward. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 14N
between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
moderate from 04N to 08N between 29W and 41W.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 19N southward, moving westward
10 knots into the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 15N to 17N between 60W and 62W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 15N between 62W and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N176W, curving to 08N20W and 06N24W. The ITCZ is along
06N27W to 05N35W, 04N38W 04N45W and 07N50W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from
04N to 07N between 08W and 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough cuts through southern
Mississippi and SE Louisiana, to a 27N92W cyclonic circulation
center, to 19N99W in southern Mexico, just to the west of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, within 120 nm on either side of
the line that passes through southern Mississippi, to the 27N92W
center, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHHV.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

ALABAMA: IFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: light rain from St.
Petersburg to parts of the Ft. Myers metropolitan area.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
68W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, with a 20N63W Atlantic Ocean-to-10N63W in
coastal Venezuela trough. The 60W tropical wave is set to move
through the same area during the next 24 hours.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia and
85W in Costa Rica. A surface trough is along 80W/81W from 09N to
14N, in the SW corner of the area. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong in Colombia from 07N to 11N at the coast between
72W and 76W. Isolated moderate from 10N southward from 80W
westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.17 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. earlier rain and thunder have ended for the moment.
La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers. VFR. Santiago:
VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of NW wind flow becoming N wind flow during the first half of the
day. A N-to-S oriented trough will move to Hispaniola from the
east, bringing cyclonic wind flow from the end of day one into at
least the middle part of day two. Southerly wind flow will follow
as the trough moves westward, away from Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover the
area during day one. The inverted trough will move to the west of
the area during day two, leaving SW wind flow. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours, with Hispaniola being on the
southern side of an E-to-W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is anchored by a cyclonic circulation
center that is about 770 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico, through the
NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, and that ends near NE coastal
Venezuela near 10N63W. Convective precipitation: Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 15N to 17N between 60W and
62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 15N between
62W and 67W.

A cold front passes through 32N31W to 30N40W and 31N49W.
A stationary front continues from 31N49W beyond 32N55W.
Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 26N northward
between 27W and 60W, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W
and 72W.

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough, from 20N northeastward,
is within 400 nm to 600 nm to the west of Africa. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward, to the area of the cold front/stationary
front, between Africa and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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