[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to
strong from 07N to 09N between 16W and 22W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 10W and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 11N southward,
moving westward 20 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along
the wave near 05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N
to 08N between 28W and 36W, and from 01N to 04N between 24W and
28W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 10N southward between 23W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 15N southward
moving westward 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along
the wave along 10N. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 11N between 40W and 46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 19N in the
eastern sections of the Dominican Republic southward, moving
westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through an area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast multilayered
convective debris clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 14N northward between 60W and 73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 16N southward,
from Honduras to Costa Rica. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are from 13N to 21N between 78W and 84W, and in
Belize. Rainshowers also are between Jamaica and the SW part of
Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Africa and it reaches the
coastal waters of Senegal near 14N17W. It continues from 08N21W to
07N23W 04N27W and 04N30W. The ITCZ was not distinct elsewhere in
the Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the coastal waters of South
Carolina, to a cyclonic circulation center that is about 45 nm to
the west of the coast of SW Florida, through the Yucatan Channel,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Bahamas from
22N to 25N between 74W and 80W. Isolated moderate from 25N
northward between 76W and 80W. Rainshowers are possible in the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air
with subsidence cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1018 mb high
pressure center that is near 27N69W, across the Bahamas, to 24N87W
in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient is
flat and weak everywhere else in the Gulf of Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR skies and ceilings, a bit, in parts of the middle
Texas Gulf coastal plains. MVFR/IFR conditions, off and on, from
Beaumont/Port Arthur northward to Jasper. LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR
conditions, off and on a bit, in the coastal plains/southern
sections of the state. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb. ALABAMA:
LIFR/IFR/MVFR in the coastal plains and southernmost sections of
the state. FLORIDA: LIFR in Brooksville, and in parts of the
Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, with the trough that extends from the SE Gulf of
Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to SE Cuba. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the Atlantic
Ocean 33N50W-to-10N60W Atlantic Ocean trough. Rainshowers are
possible between 60W and 75W.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N between 72W and 83W. Scattered
strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Colombia from 10N
to 13N between 74W and 80W, in an area of broad surface low
pressure.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for the
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: nearby
rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1700 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: light rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A Nicaragua-to-
SE Cuba ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will span
the entire area, either with an anticyclonic circulation center,
or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours,
with Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 33N50W, to a 26N55W cyclonic
circulation center, to 18N59W and 10N60W. A surface trough is
along 30N53W 27N56W 23N58W. A second surface trough is along 48W
from 18N to 23N. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area
from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in the coastal sections of Venezuela and
near Trinidad from 09N to 11N between 60W and 62W.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N21W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 22N34W 16N43W, and 10N45W. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 46W eastward. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 34N31W.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N69W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 21N northward between
60W and 76W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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