[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160726 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
326 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Corrected for format error

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 02N to 10N between 10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 11N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave near 05N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 02N to 08N between 31W and 35W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 09N southward between 20W and 31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/39W from 15N
southward moving westward 10 knots. A 1012 mb low pressure center
is along the wave along 10N. Isolated moderate from 08N to 12N
between 38W and 44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/70W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through
an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 14N northward between 60W and 73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/84W from 16N southward,
along the coast of Central America, from Honduras to Costa Rica.
Scattered strong rainshowers are from 13N to 16N between 79W and
the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, and from 17N to 21N between
79W and 83W. Scattered moderate to strong also covers the area
from Belize to Guatemala, and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough is along 08N20W 05N30W. The ITCZ is along
09N42W 08N51W 07N57W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the coastal waters of South
Carolina, to a cyclonic circulation center that is about 100 nm to
the west of the coast of SW Florida, through the Yucatan Channel,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are near the southernmost tip of Florida/the
Florida Keys, and just to the west of Eleuthera Island in the
Bahamas. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward
between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air
with subsidence cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 26N92W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KXIH.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR in inland/interior sections of the Lower Valley. light
rain in Alice has ended for the moment. Rockport and Palacios are
reporting some MVFR conditions from time to time. LOUISIANA:
MVFR at the NAS in New Orleans. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in McComb. light
rain in parts of the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. rainshowers
and thunder in the coastal plains. ALABAMA: LIFR in Evergreen.
FLORIDA: light rain in Milton and Apalachicola. rainshowers and
thunder in Marathon Key have ended for the moment.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, with the trough that extends from the SE Gulf of
Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level ridge extends from Nicaragua to SE Cuba. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the Atlantic
Ocean 27N56W-to-19N58W-to-10N59W trough. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 14N northward between 60W and 73W.

Scattered strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Colombia
from 10N to 13N between 74W and 79W, in an area of broad surface
low pressure.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: light rain and
thunder. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Puerto Plata:
MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A Nicaragua-to-
SE Cuba ridge will be to the west of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will span
the entire area, either with an anticyclonic circulation center,
or with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE
wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours,
with Hispaniola being on the southern side of a north-to-south
oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 27N56W cyclonic circulation
center, to 19N58W and 10N59W. A surface trough is along 31N52W
28N56W 25N57W. A second surface trough is along 24N47W 18N50W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N northward between 60W
and 73W. Rainshowers also are from 20N northward between 50W and
70W.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N21W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 20N37W and 10N45W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
from 44W eastward. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N34W.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 26N67W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between
60W and 78W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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