[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic Ocean associated with
a 1011 mb low near 05N26W. The wave axis extends from 09N26W to
the low to 01N26W and has been moving west at 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show moderate low level moisture
with patches of dry air. Favorable wind shear and a diffluent
environment at the upper levels support scattered moderate
convection SE of the low center from 0N-4.5N between 23W-28W. Some
slight development of this system is possible during the next few
days while the wave moves westward over the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
13N35W to 05N36W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a moderate moist environment,
with some patches of dry air. The wave coincides with a diffluent
environment aloft and is in a region of favorable wind shear,
however enhanced satellite imagery show Saharan dry air in the
wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered
showers from 09N-12N between 34W and 37W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
17N62W to 10N62W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a moderate moist environment,
with some patches of dry air. The wave is also in a region of unfavorable
wind shear. However, upper level divergence support scattered
showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and from 13N-16N
between 60W and 68W.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from
18N76W to 08N77W, moving westward at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant and very moist air in the
wave environment, however it is in a region of strong shear.
Middle level diffluence support scattered to isolated showers
within 60 nm either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
11N15W to 05N26W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to
07N50W to 06N57W. Most of the convective activity is associated
with two tropical waves. See waves section above. Otherwise,
scattered heavy showers are from 03N to 07N between 10W and 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb located over the SE CONUS extends a
ridge across the north-central and eastern Gulf region, thus
supporting moderate to locally fresh SE flow. Shallow moisture
being advected from the Caribbean along with the presence of an upper
level trough support scattered showers across the central and
northern Florida peninsula and the Florida straits. Plenty of
moisture and the risk of some heavy showers and thunderstorms will
be very possible across south Florida through the weekend.
Abundant moisture are also expected to persist over the SE Gulf
and the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. This weather
pattern will be associated with a broad area of low pressure
forecast to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent
land areas by the weekend. Some gradual development of this system
is possible thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward toward
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Winds are expected to increase
over the SW Gulf by late Saturday ahead of the low pressure
expected to approach the region through northern Central America.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please
see the tropical waves section for more details. These tropical
waves will become absorbed in a broad area of low pressure
forecast to form over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.
A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over the SW Gulf near
10N82W. This low is producing scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorm activity S of 18N between 77W and 85W. This low is
forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours.
Scatterometer data show moderate to fresh trades across the east
and central Caribbean and fresh to locally strong winds across
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are seen over the
NW Caribbean. This wind pattern will continue through Thursday.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the
weekend bringing more rain to the area. In fact, computer models
indicate plenty of moisture across the western and central
Caribbean Sea, and over most of Cuba during the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough in the SW Atlantic extends south to a base
over Hispaniola. This trough, combined with E-SE winds at low
levels support scattered showers and tstms across almost the
entire Island. Late tomorrow, expect a gradual increase in
moisture as a tropical wave approaches from the east. This will
support the continuation of showers through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A surface trough extends from 30N60W
to 24N66W and support isolated showers and tstms from 28N-33N
between 55W and 59W. A 1021 mb center of high pressure is west of
this trough anchored near 28N68W, which is expected to move SE to
near 26N65W by Thursday night. Otherwise, broad high pressure
covers the Atlantic from the Azores to 60W. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are around the southern periphery of the ridge
between the Windward Islands and 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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