[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N20W
to a 1013 mb low at 06N21W to 01N21W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a very moist environment from
the surface to 850 mb, along with favorable wind shear and upper
level divergence supports scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 00N-09N between 21W-27W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
13N34W to 04N33W, moving west at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows
the wave is in a moderate moist environment, with some patches of
dry air. The wave coincides with a diffluent environment at the
middle levels and a col of low pressure in the upper levels, and
is in a region of favorable wind shear. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the W Atlc just SE of the Lesser Antilles
with axis extending from 17N58W to 06N58W, moving west at 20 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is in a moderate moist environment,
with some patches of dry air. Enhanced satellite imagery confirms
the presence of Saharan dry air N of 17N. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from
17N73W to inland Colombia near 07N74W, moving westward at 10 kt.
CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture with patches of dry air
in the wave environment. Unfavorable wind shear is over the
Caribbean portion of the wave. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is inland over Colombia from 06N-11N between
71W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa at 10N15W
to 06N21W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to the coast of
South America at 06N54W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 04N-08N between 10W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from S Georgia at 31N to E Texas at
31N producing 5-20 kt E to SE surface winds over the Gulf of
Mexico. Strongest winds are over the W Gulf where the surface
pressure gradient is the strongest. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the SE Gulf, S
of 27N and E of 83W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
and S Mexico from 21N91W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 87W. Strong
subsidence is over S Texas and the W Gulf, while upper level
moisture is over the E Gulf and Florida. Expect scattered showers
over the E Gulf and Florida over the next 24 hours. Also expect
more convection over the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the
tropical waves section for more details. Numerous strong
convection is inland over S Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and W
Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean from 11N-13N between 77W-80W. Scattered showers
are over the NW Caribbean, Cuba, and Hispaniola. Of note in the
upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the Far NW Caribbean,
and W Cuba, enhancing showers. Expect over the next 24 hours for
the tropical wave to move W with showers. Also expect an increase
of convection over the S Caribbean and Central America.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough in the SW Atlc extends S to a base over
southern Hispaniola coastal waters. This is supporting lifting of
moist warm air and the development of scattered heavy showers and
tstms over central Haiti and the NW Dominican Republic. This
shower activity is forecast through Wednesday morning as the upper
trough moves east to the N of Puerto Rico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. Scattered showers are over the W
Atlantic W of 75W to include the Bahamas. A surface trough over
the W Atlantic extends from 30N60W to 24N64W. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm E of the trough axis. Farther east, another
surface trough extends from 31N37W to 25N39W. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm E of this trough. A 1019 mb low is W of the
Canary Islands near 28N25W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of
the low center. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level
low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N64W. Upper level
diffluence is E of the center enhancing showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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