[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of west Africa with axis from
10N14W to 03N13W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is a low
amplitude wave with a very moist area on SSMI TPW imagery. The 700
mb trough is also S of 10N. The GFS model guidance shows a
tropical wave with axis near 15W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 03N-12N between 11W-16W.

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 13N27W to
04N29W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with
broad 700 mb troughing. The SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is
embedded in deep-layer moisture S of 15N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-10N between 27W-30W.

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 12N36W to
04N38W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is associated with
broad 700 mb troughing. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is
encountering dry air to the north of 10N. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the wave axis S of 10N.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis from
13N49W to 06N51W moving westward at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery
shows this wave is embedded in deep-layer moisture S of 14N. The
700 mb trough is depicted along 53W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-12N between 48W-51W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis from
15N70W to 05N71W moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is
associated with 700 mb troughing. SSMI TPW imagery shows this
wave is encountering dry air to the W of the axis. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the axis over Venezuela.

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis from 15N82W to
07N82W moving westward at 10 kt. This wave is associated with
weak 700 mb troughing. The wave is also interacting with the
Monsoon Trough, which passes over the SW Caribbean. However,
upper-level ridging from the Gulf of Honduras to the central
Caribbean is producing subsidence over this wave which is
inhibiting deep convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N17W
to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 07N36W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 07N39W to 10N49W. The ITCZ resumes
west of a tropical wave near 10N52W and extends to the coast of
South America near 10N61W. Aside from convection discussed in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N-06N between 33W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends from S Georgia at 32N to central
Texas at 32N producing 10-15 kt SE surface winds over the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N95W
to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over S Texas
and the W Gulf, while upper level moisture is over the E Gulf and
Florida. Expect scattered showers over the E Gulf and Florida over
the next 24 hours. Also expect more convection over the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are passing over the Caribbean. Please see the
tropical waves section for more details. Numerous strong
convection is inland over S Mexico and Guatemala. The pressure
gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure
associated with the Monsoon Trough is generating moderate to fresh
east to east- southeast winds over the Caribbean basin. Winds are
strongest over the Gulf of Honduras and along the northern coast
of Colombia. Upper-level ridging from the Gulf of Honduras to the
central Caribbean is combining with an upper-level trough passing
over the eastern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to central Venezuela
to create a subsident environment over the basin which is
inhibiting deep convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level trough extending southward over Puerto Rico into
the Caribbean is inhibiting convection somewhat. However, colder
air aloft is providing the instability for showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly over the mountains during the afternoon and
early evening Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A weak surface trough off the Florida
East Coast from 30N79W to 26N79W is supporting isolated showers
and thunderstorms along the Florida coast west of 78W. This trough
is expected to persist during the next 24 hours. A surface trough
located over the central Atlantic from 28N53W to 21N60W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the axis. A weakening 1020 mb
surface low is centered near 29N38W. No deep convection is noted.
Otherwise, broad high pressure covering the Atlantic from the
Azores to the Carolinas is generating moderate trades north of the
ITCZ to 22N between the Windward Islands and 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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