[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday extends
from 13N20W to 04N20W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave
is embedded in a deep moisture surge and inverted 700 mb trough.
An area of numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 10N between 15W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 15N34W to 05N35W,
moving westward at about 20 kt. The wave shows up pretty well in
the TPW animation and 700 mb streamline analysis. Convection is
limited near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Its axis
extends from Guadeloupe to the NE coast of Venezuela where is
helping to induce some convective activity. The wave has produced
a few showers across the islands. Moisture associated with the
wave will reach the central Caribbean by late Sunday.

Another tropical wave is moving across the SW Caribbean and
extends from 16N79W across eastern Panama into the EPAC region.
An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is south of 11N
between 77W and 81W. This convective activity is affecting parts
of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone
and continues to 08N20W to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W
to 08N50W to 09N60W. A pair of tropical waves are within the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. In addition, a surface trough is analyzed
along 47W from 06N to 13N. Aside from convection discussed in the
tropical waves section, a small cluster of moderate convection is
where the trough meets the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface trough, previously located over the SE Gulf and the NW
Caribbean, continues to drift NW and currently extends across the
Gulf of Mexico from near Tampa Bay to 25N90W to the central Bay
of Campeche. Upper diffluence between an upper-level trough
located over the western Gulf and anticyclone situated over the NW
Caribbean is helping to induce convection near the trough axis and
surrounding areas. Satellite imagery and lightning data show
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
Gulf, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida Peninsula, more
concentrated over central Florida. The trough will continue to
drift NW through Sunday accompanied by showers and tstms. Computer
model indicates abundant moisture across the Gulf region east of
92W, including the Yutacan Peninsula and most of the Florida
Peninsula on Sunday, resulting in more shower and thunderstorm
activity. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of
the trough axis. Mainly moderate E to SE winds cover the remainder
of the Gulf. High pres will build west across Gulf in the wake of
the trough Sunday through late Monday increasing winds and seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Another tropical
wave is interacting with the eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough to
support convection over portions of the SW Caribbean and Panama.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.
Showers and thunderstorms are also noted over portions of Central
America, particularly along the Pacific side due to a northward
displacement of the Monsoon Trough. Locally heavy rains should
spread over the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico during the next few days. See the Eastern Pacific Tropical
Weather Discussion for more details. Scatterometer data provide
observations of moderate to fresh southerly winds across the NW
Caribbean due to the presion gradient between the Atlantic ridge
and the trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong trades
are over the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
near the coast of Colombia. The Atlantic high pressure centered
near 29N58W will maintain fresh to strong trades across the basin
Sunday and Monday, with the strongest winds across the south-
central Caribbean, the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

A few showers and thunderstorms were noted over the island late in
the afternoon and evening hours due to local effects. Dry air and
subsidence aloft will continue over the island through tonight.
A mid to upper level low to east of the area will cross the
island on Sunday, with the more unstable portion of the low
reaching Hispaniola Sunday afternoon. This will cause an increase
in showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A frontal trough extends from 31N74W to
NE Florida near 29N81W, supporting scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. This convective activity is affecting mainly
the central and north portions of Florida and the Atlantic waters
north of 27N and west of 72W. This trough will continue to drift
N-NW and weaken through Sunday. A cold front is moving southward
across the central Atlantic and extends from a weak 1018 mb low
pressure near 28N44W to 24N50W to 26N55W. Visible satellite
imagery showed very well the developing low pressure along the
frontal boundary. The cold front will continue to move southward
across the central Atlantic on Sunday, then stall and drift back
on Monday. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of
a ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located near 29N58W.
The high pressure will move slowly nortward over the next 24
hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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