[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis extending from 13N18W to 02N18W.
This wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. Abundant moisture prevails
in this wave's environment as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection prevails along the southern portion
of the wave south of 09N between and east of 21W.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 13N33W to 04N35W, moving
west at about 10-15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave inhibiting
deep convection at this time. The only activity observed are
isolated showers that prevail along the wave's axis south of 10N
between 34W-36W.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N58W to 06N59W, moving
west at 15-20 kt. Convection increases where the wave meets the
ITCZ mainly south of 10N. IR satellite imagery reveals an area of
moderate convection from 05N-09N between 55W-61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends the Atlantic Ocean near 10N19W to
08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 08N32W, then resumes west
of a tropical wave near 08N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection can be found within 100 nm on either side of these
boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions remain very humid and unstable across the
southeast Gulf affecting portions of south Florida, the Florida
Keys, Florida Straits, and also western Cuba supported by a
diffluent flow aloft. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan
Channel and Peninsula from 25N85W to 19N90W. Scattered showers
are observed along and in the vicinity of the trough. Another
surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to
19N94W. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the area as
a surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.
Expect for the moisture over the southeast Gulf to lift northward
over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the likelihood of rain high on
Saturday. Locally heavy rain will be possible. The surface trough
will dissipate during the next 24-48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent flow aloft is keeping western Cuba under a wet
weather pattern. These conditions are forecast to gradually
improve during the upcoming weekend as ridge begins to develop
across the region. A surface trough extends from 20N85W to 17N86W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along this trough. Another
surface trough extends from 12N82W to 09N82W with scattered
moderate convection. Scattered showers are observed across the
Windward Islands and adjacent waters south of 14N and east of 64W.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by the broad surface high
pressure system centered over the west Atlantic. The most recent
scatterometer data depicts mainly moderate trade winds over the
eastern and central Caribbean, while winds are light south of 13N
and west of 77W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected
across the basin through the upcoming weekend except for fresh to
strong trades across the south-central portions of the Caribbean
and the Gulf of Honduras starting Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Daytime
heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will
combine with available moisture in the region to produce some
cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details. A stationary front extends from 31N71W
to 28N80W. Scattered showers prevail near the front mainly west
of 70W affecting the northern Bahamas. A 1025 mb surface high is
centered near 30N59W. To the east, a cold front extends from
31N31W to 28N54W. No deep convection is relate to this front at
this time. Another surface high is centered near 28N35W. Expect
for the frontal boundary over the west Atlantic to weaken during
the next 24 hours and move north. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
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