[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 13N29W to 04N30W. African dust
surrounds the wave. Thus, convection is limited, with only
isolated to scattered showers near the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 14N52W to 06N52W. Convection
increases where the wave meets the ITCZ. IR satellite imagery
reveals an area of moderate to isolated strong convection from
06N-09N between 50W-54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across west Africa and enters the
Atlantic Ocean through Guinea Bissau to 08N28W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N30W to 07N40W to 08N51W to the coast of Guyana at 08N59W.
A pair of tropical waves are within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from
04N-07N between 10W-20W, and 06N-10N between 21W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weather conditions remain very humid and unstable across the SE
Gulf, the Florida Keys and south Florida, including also western
Cuba. As of 2100 UTC, a weakening frontal boundary persists over
south Florida and just north of the Florida Keys, while a surface
trough extends over the SE Gulf from 24N84W across the Yucatan
Peninsula to northern Guatemala near 17N90W. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are noted in association with the front
and trough. An unusually deep longwave trough, currently near the
eastern coast of U.S. extending south across the eastern Gulf,
continues to support these active weather. Southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough continues to advect deep tropical moisture
across this area. The main threat from this convective activity
will be heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. The trough will
drift north tonight accompanied by active weather, then it is
forecast to dissipate on Saturday. Moisture associated with the
front will aslo lift back northward over South Florida, increasing
again the likelihood of rain on Saturday. Locally heavy rain will
be possible. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf
region, producing a few clouds and light to gentle winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As perviously mentioned, western Cuba is also under the influence
of the large scale mid-upper level trough now located near the
eastern coast of U.S. and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This weather
pattern has brought heavy rain across parts of western Cuba,
particularly over the provinces of Mayabeque and Matanzas, where
rainfall amounts of 7-8 inches (180-200 mm) in 24 hours were
reported by the Cuban Weather Service this morning. Weather
conditions are forecast to gradually improve across western Cuba
during the upcoming weekend as ridge begins to develop across the
region. Abundant mainly mid to upper clouds are noted across the
Lesser Antilles on the SE side of an upper-level low spinning near
the Virgin Islands. The most recent scatterometer data provide
observations of mainly moderate trade winds over the eastern
caribbean and parts of the central Caribbean. Winds are light
south of 13N west of 77W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
expected across the basin through the upcoming weekend except for
fresh to strong trades across the south-central portions of the
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras starting Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope liftingwill combine with available moisture in the region to produce
some cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated thuderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. A third tropical wave appears to
be entering the Atlantic Ocean and could be added to the next
surface map at 0000 UTC. As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front
extends from 31N75W to south Florida. A band of showers and
thunderstorms extends from the Straits of Florida across the NW
Bahamas and the western Atlantic just ahead of the front forecast
to drift north on Saturday before dissipating on Sunday. A weak
ridge will build across the western Atlantic through the weekend.
High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, with a 1023
mb high center near 27N55W, and another center of 1021 mb located
near 30N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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