[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 11N35W to 02N36W, moving west at 5 kt within the last 24
hours. Saharan dry air and dust are in the wave environment N of
07N as well as unfavorable wind shear. Middle level diffluence and
abundant moisture associated with the ITCZ support numerous heavy
showers from 03N-08N between 34W-40W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis extending from
10N49W to 02N50W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture associated with
the wave, which along with upper level divergence support
scattered showers from 05N-13N between 46W-53W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea with axis
extending from 19N71W to inland Venezuela near 09N72W, moving
west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Unfavorable wind shear and
deep layer dry air in the region inhibit convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 07N26W to
06N35W...then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N37W and
continues to 06N49W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level low N of the area extends a trough S-SE to
a broad base over the far NW Caribbean, which continue to support
a 1005 mb low over the Florida Big Bend adjacent waters near
29N84W. From the low, a cold front extends SW along 25N87W to
24N91W while a stationary front extends NE of the low across
northern Florida. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the low
and inland the northern Florida Peninsula. A diffluent
environment aloft between the upper trough and a ridge that covers
portions of the NW and central Caribbean continue to support heavy
showers, scattered tstms and gusty winds across the Florida
straits. The weak cold front will move across Florida Thursday and
Friday, thus showers are expected to continue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala along
with diffluent flow aloft support numerous heavy showers, tstms
and gusty winds S of 21N W of 85W. Convection in this area is
forecast to persist through Friday. Similar convection is over the
coastal waters between Panama and Colombia associated with a 1008
mb low over Colombia from which the EPAC monsoon trough extends
across Panama, Costa Rica and into the Pacific ocean. Scattered to
isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere in the SW basin S of 12N
associated with the monsoon. Otherwise, a tropical wave is in the
central basin, however it lacks convection. Please, refer to the
Tropical Waves Section for more details. Scatterometer data
provide observations of mainly moderate to fresh trades over the
eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate SE flow is over the NW
Caribbean on the SW periphery of a ridge that enters the basin
through eastern Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave moves across the Island tonight, however
unfavorable wind shear and deep layer dry air across the region
hinder convection at the time. Model guidance indicate the
development of showers across Hispaniola Thursday and Friday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.
Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing scattered heavy
showers, tstms and gusty winds across the Florida straits and SW
North Atlc waters N of 24N W of 74W. High pressure of 1024 mb
located near 30N39W extends a ridge SW through the SE Bahamas and
eastern Cuba into the Caribbean Sea. This system dominates most of
the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front located just north of area
W of 70W, and across northern Florida will sink slowly south
tonight and Thursday reaching from 31N77W to northern Florida by
Thursday evening. Fresh to strong SW winds, and scattered to
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected SE of
the front. The remainder of the area will continue under the
influence of the above mentioned ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
NThis weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net