[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
727 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N34W to 02N35W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Saharan dry
air and dust are in its environment. A 700 mb trough is also
noted. Convection is confined to the ITCZ axis.

A tropical wave extends from 11N47W to 02N48W, moving west at 20
kt during the last 24 hours. The wave shows up pretty well in the
TPW animation where a bulge of moisture is noted near the wave
axis. IR satellite imagery shows a couple of small clusters of
showers with embedded thunderstorms on the east side of the wave
axis near 08N43W and near 08N46W.

A tropical wave is over Caribbean Sea near 70W, moving west at
15-20 kt. TPW imagery shows a well defined moisture plume just
behind the wave axis. A 700 mb tough is also noted. The wave is
helping to induce scattered showers near the ABC Islands and
western Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N34W to 07N41W to
NE French Guiana. As previously mentioned, a pair of tropical
waves are embedded within the ITCZ. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 05N-09N between 23W-27W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a 1003 mb low pressure is analyzed over the NE
Gulf of Mexico near 29.5N86W. A surface trough extends SW from
the low to the W Gulf near 24N93W. This system is producing very
heavy rain and thunderstorms over Florida and parts of the SE
CONUS. The Mosaic Doppler Radar from the SE U.S. and lightning
data show a wide band of showers and thunderstorms affecting
most of the central and south Florida, including also the
Florida Keys. This convective activity extends farther south
across the Straits of Florida and parts of western Cuba,
particularly over the provinces of Artemisa and Mayabeque and
the city of Havana, and is also reaching the NW Bahamas.  Strong
gusty winds are expected in and near the tstms.  Rainfall totals
of as much as 15-20 inches( 350-500 mm) have already fallen in
portions of south Florida over the last 48 hours. Gusty winds of
up to 50 kt were reported acrosss the SW coast of Florida late
in the morning and this afternoon in association with a strong
line of thunderstorms. Unfortunally, it appears that the weather
conditions will stay unsettled in south Florida through Friday.
The low pressure is forecast to move E across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic tonight.
The associated trough will also move east through Thursday before
stalling over the SE Gulf on Friday. A deep layered trough, with
axis across the central Gulf, supports the low and surface
trough.
Abundant tropical moisture will persist over south Florida and
the SE Gulf through at least Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is near 70W. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves
Section for more details. The most recent scatterometer data
provide observations of mainly moderate to fresh trades over the
eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate SE flow is over the NW
Caribbean on the SW periphery of a ridge that enters the basin
through eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted over northern Central America. A diffluent pattern aloft is
helping to induce this convective activity. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over parts of Costa Rica and Panama
due to the presence of the monsoon trough. The upper-level trough
currently over the central Gulf of Mexico will slide east through
the end of the workweek, which will continue to advect deep
tropical moisture over the NW Caribbean and parts of western
Cuba, especially over the provinces of Pinar del Rio and
Artemisa on Thursday and Friday. This will increase the
likelihood of rain over these areas.


...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave currently moving across the island, along with
the local effects could produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. Computer model shows some
increase in moisture across Hispaniola by late Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.
High pressure of 1023 mb located near 30N38W extends a ridge SW
through the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba into the Caribbean Sea.
This system dominates most of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary
front located just north of area W of 70W, and across northern
Florida will sink slowly south tonight and Thursday reaching
from 31N77W to northern Florida by Thursday evening. Fresh to
strong SW winds, and scattered to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms are expected SE of the front. The remainder of the
area will continue under the influence of the above mentioned
ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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