[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N33W to 03N34W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region
of mainly unfavorable wind shear. Saharan dry air and dust are in
its environment. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Convection is
confined to the ITCZ axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N47W to 03N48W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and is being affected by
Saharan dry air intrusion into its environment. A slight 700 mb
trough is noted. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N
between 45W-50W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean extending from 17N62W to
13N65W to 08N66W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows
a well defined moisture plume. A 700 mb tough is also noted.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 06N33W...then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 06N35W and continues to 06N46W. The
ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N49W and continues to
the South American coast near 05N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the African coast from 05N-07N between 08W-13W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 18W-30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1005 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 30N86W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to
the W Gulf near 26N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60
nm of low and trough. More importantly, radar and lightning
imagery shows a wide band of scattered moderate convection from N
Florida at 30N81W to the SE GUlf at 24N86W. More scattered
moderate convection is over S Florida. In the upper levels, a
trough axis extends from SW Georgia near 31N84W to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough
axis enhancing convection over Florida. Expect the surface low to
move to the coast of South Carolina near 32N78W in 24 hours with
convection. Also expect showers and convection to move further E
over the E Gulf and the Florida Peninsula over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over the eastern and central Caribbean. 15 kt SE
surface flow is over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over
the NW Caribbean, and the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate
convection is over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica, due to a
monsoon trough. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is
over the NW Caribbean W of 80W, and also over the E Caribbean E of
68W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move
W over the E Caribbean. Also expect more scattered showers and
convection to advect over the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of
Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly clear skies prevail across the island as northerly flow
aloft continues to provide a subsident environment for the region.
A tropical wave is expected to move S of the island late today
into Thursday and provide increased cloudiness and the potential
for showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two more tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer
to the waves section above for details. Clusters of widely scattered
moderate convection are over the W Atlantic N of 24W between 72W-80W,
to include the N Bahamas. A large 1024 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 30N40W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper
levels, upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic significantly
enhancing convection. Expect the convection over the W Atlantic
to persist for the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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