[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
11N32W to 03N34W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of mainly unfavorable wind shear, and
Saharan dry air and dust is in its environment, which is limiting
the convection to scattered showers from 03N-08N between 32W-37W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
13N41W to 05N41W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and is
being affected by Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment.
Abundant moisture associated with the ITCZ and middle level
divergent flow support numerous heavy showers from 03N-07N between
38W-43W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
16N60W to inland Venezuela near 08N62W, moving west at 5-10 kt
within the last 24 hours. The wave is in an unfavorable wind
shear environment, however shallow moisture shown in CIRA LPW
support isolated showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and
Caribbean waters E of 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N18W to 06N33W to 05N44W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves...scattered heavy showers and
tstms are off the coast of Africa from 04N-11N E of 18W and from
03N-07N between 45W-53W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle to upper level trough extending southward to a
broad base over the Bay of Campeche supports a 1004 mb low
centered near 29N87W with associated surface trough extending from
northern Florida to the low then SW to 28N92W. Scattered showers
and are occurring within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Farther
east, across the SE Gulf and Florida peninsula, scattered to
numerous heavy showers and tstms are occurring from 24N-27N E of
85W being enhanced primarily by middle to upper level diffluence
E of the upper level trough. The broad area of lower pressure is
forecast to move slowly E-NE and into the SW North Atlc waters by
Thursday. The lingering frontal trough is expected to extend
across the Florida peninsula through late in the week bringing a
high probability of convection across the SE Gulf and southern
Florida peninsula with possible strong storms and heavy rainfall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level ridge and associated NE flow aloft
continues to provide overall dry conditions and clear skies across
much of the western Caribbean. Diffluence aloft between this ridge
and the upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico supports scattered to
isolated showers over western Cuba and adjacent waters, the
Yucatan Peninsula coastal waters and the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise,
over the eastern Caribbean another upper level ridge is anchored
over the tropical Atlc. Primarily S-SW flow aloft prevails E of
70W. This diffluent environment along with the presence of a
tropical wave along 62W is providing focus for scattered to
isolated showers and tstms over the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean
waters E of 67W. The wave is forecast to move westward and
increase cloudiness and the probability of convection across the
ABC Islands and northern Venezuela through Wednesday. Fresh to
strong trades are expected to persist across the central Caribbean
as surface ridge axis remains anchored to the N across the SW
North Atlc region. This area of trades is expected to persist
through Wednesday night and then diminish as the ridge to the N
weakens and slides eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly clear skies prevail this evening across the island as
northerly flow aloft continues to provide a subsident environment
for the region. A tropical wave is expected to move S of the
island late Wednesday into Thursday and provide increased
cloudiness and the potential of showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper
level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is providing numerous heavy
shower, scattered tstms and gusty winds across the southern Florida
peninsula and SW North Atlc waters N of 24N W of 75W. This
activity lies within an area of maximum middle to upper level
diffluence and is expected to persist into Wednesday as a surface
low over the northern Gulf of Mexico and upper level trough will
be slow to move E-NE during the next couple of days.
Otherwise, surface ridging extends from 1024 mb high centered in
the central Atlc near 30N40W to the SE Bahamas providing overall
fair conditions for much of the eastern and central Atlc.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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