[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N31W to 11N29W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W-34W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 07N along
the wave axis. No significant deep convection is occurring with
the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 04N41W to 12N39W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 38W-43W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 08N along
the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N
between 38W-44W...remaining largely embedded within the ITCZ.

Tropical wave extends from 07N63W to 16N59W moving W 10-15 kt. The
wave continues to stretch low to middle level energy to the NE
across the central Atlc while maintaining broad 700 mb troughing S
of 15N between 58W-65W. As the mid-level energy stretch occurs
beneath upper level diffluent S-SW flow aloft...scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 06N-12N between 57W-67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
09N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N18W to 06N31W to 05N41W to 04N52W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-08N between 34W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is centered over the lower Mississippi
River valley this evening with troughing extending southward over
the western Gulf to a broad base near 19N94W. This upper-level
feature itself supports a 1005 mb low centered near 30N89W and a
surface trough extending S to 26N90W then SW to 24N95W. Scattered
showers and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the
surface trough and N of 28N between 88W-95W...including inland
portions of the SE CONUS. Farther east...across the SE Gulf and
Florida peninsula...scattered to numerous showers and scattered
tstms are occurring generally E of a line from the Florida Big
Bend region S-SW to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
This activity is continuing to be enhanced primarily by middle to
upper level diffluence E of the upper level troughing. The broad
area of lower pressure is forecast to move slowly E-NE and into
the SW North Atlc waters by Thursday. The lingering frontal trough
is expected to extend across the Florida peninsula through late in
the week bringing a high probability of convection across the SE
Gulf and southern Florida peninsula with possible strong storms
and heavy rainfall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge and associated NE flow aloft continues to
provide overall dry conditions and clear skies across much of the
western Caribbean this evening. As an upper level low is centered
over the lower Mississippi River valley...upper level diffluence
is maximized over the Yucatan Peninsula...Channel...and western
Cuba providing scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms N
of 18N W of 84W. Similar convection is occurring farther S across
interior portions of Central America this evening. Otherwise...
over the eastern Caribbean another upper level ridge is anchored
over the tropical Atlc near 09N48W. Primarily S-SW flow aloft
prevails E of 70W. This diffluent environment along with the
presence of a tropical wave along 62W is providingfocus for
scattered showers and tstms across the far SE Caribbean S of 12N E
of 67W. The wave is forecast to move westward and increase
cloudiness and the probability of convection across the ABC
Islands and northern Venezuela through Wednesday. Finally...fresh
to strong trades are expected to persist across the central
Caribbean as surface ridge axis remains anchored to the N across
the SW North Atlc region. This area of trades is expected to
persist through Wednesday night and then diminish as the ridge to
the N weakens and slides eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies prevail this evening across the island as
northerly flow aloft continues to provide a subsident environment
for the region. A tropical wave is expected to move S of the
island late Wednesday into Thursday and provide increased
cloudiness.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Southwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper
level low centered over the lower Mississippi River valley this
evening is providing numerous showers and scattered tstms across
the Florida peninsula and SW North Atlc waters N of 25N W of 70W.
This activity lies within an area of maximum middle to upper level
diffluence and is expected to persist into Wednesday as the
surface low and upper level trough will be slow to move E-NE
during the next couple of days. Otherwise...surface ridging
extends from 1026 mb high centered in the central Atlc near
31N37W to the SE Bahamas near 23N75W providing overall fair
conditions for much of the eastern and central Atlc.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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