[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending
from 10N27W to 01N29W, moving west at 15 kt. There is a low level
inverted trough associated with this wave near 27W. The wave is
in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 08N. However, moderate
low to middle level moisture and upper level divergence support
scattered showers from 05N-08N between 25W-32W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 13N37W to 01N40W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a
region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and being affected by
Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment. Presently no
convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 16N57W to 12N60W to 06N61W, moving west at 20 kt. SSMI TPW
imagery shows a well defined moisture plume. A 700 mb tough is
also noted. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
confined in vicinity of the ITCZ from 07N-10N between 57W-63W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 05N27W...then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 05N31W and continues to 05N39W. The
ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N41W and continues
to 05N50W to the South American coast near 07N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the African coast from 04N-08N
between 02W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W-48W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within120 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 48W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 mb low is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 29N89W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to 25N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of low and trough.
More scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf and Florida
E of 86W. In the upper levels, a trough axis extends from SE
Louisiana near 30N90W to S Mexico near 17N96W. Upper level
diffluence is E of the trough axis enhancing convection. Expect
the surface low to move to the Florida Panhandle in 24 hours with
convection. Also expect showers and convection to move E to the E
Gulf and the Florida Peninsula over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles. See above. 15-25 kt
tradewinds are over the eastern and central Caribbean. 15 kt SE
surface flow is over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from 11N-13N between
82W-85W. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the
NW Caribbean W of 80W, and also over the E Caribbean E of 68W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W over
the E Caribbean. Also expect more scattered showers to advect over
the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently an upper level ridge with dry air subsidence supports
stable conditions and fair weather. Model guidance indicates fair
weather conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. The tropical
wave will traverse the central Caribbean and Hispaniola late
Wednesday and Thursday, however, with showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two more tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer
to the waves section above for details. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Atlantic N
of 24W between 70W-80W, to include the N Bahamas. A surface trough
is over the central Atlantic from 31N52W to 27N58W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1026 mb high is over the
E Atlantic near 35N27W. Expect the convection over the W Atlantic
to persist for the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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