[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from
09N25W to 03N26W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
There is a middle level inverted trough associated with this wave
near 25W. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of
08N. However, moderate low to middle level moisture and upper
level divergence support scattered showers from 05N to 08N
between 23W and 29W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N34W to 03N35W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and
being affected by Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment. No
convection is associated with this wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is SE of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 16N57W to inland Guyana near 05N58W, moving west at 20 kt
within the last 24 hours. Even that the wave is in an unfavorable
wind shear environment, abundant moisture shown in CIRA LPW and
upper level diffluence support scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms S of 11N between 51W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 05N34W...then resumes
west of a tropical wave near 04N37W and continues west to the N
South America coast near 05N52W. Scattered showers are off the
coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 04N-09N E of 16W.
Scattered showers are also within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominates across the Gulf waters with
moderate to fresh southerly flow east of 90W advecting abundant
moisture from the west Caribbean Sea. This abundant moisture along
with divergent flow aloft between a middle to upper level trough
over the central Gulf and a ridge over Central America and Western
Caribbean support scattered heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds
in the SE Gulf from 25N-28N E of 87W. Isolated showers are
observed over adjacent waters of the Florida Big Bend as well as
the Yucatan channel. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms
are also observed in Doppler radar data off the coasts of
Mississippi and Alabama N of 28N. This area of showers is to the
NE of a 1005 mb center of low pressure over the Gulf NW waters
near 29N92W with associated trough extending from the low to
24N95W. This low is forecast to move to Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle adjacent waters by late tonight. Showers across the
eastern Gulf are forecast to continue through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture in the NW Caribbean and a diffluent environment
aloft support isolated showers across the Yucatan Channel and
west of 84W. A tropical wave SE of the Lesser Antilles along with
moisture being advected from the tropical Atlc and S America by
upper level southerly flow support cloudiness and isolated
showers in the SE basin east of 70W. Except for isolated showers
and tstms off the coast of Panama S of 12N between 77W-80W
associated in part with the monsoon trough, the remainder basin
is under fair weather conditions. Otherwise, scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong trades S of 16N between 65W-78W and mainly
moderate trades elsewhere. The tropical wave in the west Atlc
will cross the Windward Islands today with potential showers for
the eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle level ridge, dry air subsidence from aloft as well as
strong wind shear across the Island support stable conditions and
fair weather. Model guidance indicate fair weather conditions
will prevail today, however the passage of a tropical wave across
the central Caribbean late Wednesday and Thursaday will support
the development of showers across the Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the waves section above for details. Diffluent flow aloft
prevails in the SW N Atlantic embedded in an upper level ridge
that covers the region W of 70W. This wind environment aloft along
with abundant moisture in the region being advected from the west
Caribbean support scattered heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds N
of 24N W of 74W, including the northern and central Bahamas. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N56W, and a 1025 mb high near
35N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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