[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N32W to 03N34W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear N of 07N and
being affected by Saharan dry air intrusion to its environment. No
convection is associated with this wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is SE of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 14N58W to inland Guyana near 07N59W, moving west at 20 kt
within the last 24 hours. Even that the wave is in an unfavorable
wind shear environment, abundant moisture shown in CIRA LPW and
upper level diffluence support scattered heavy showers and
isolated tstms S of 11N between 51W and 63W.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with axis
extending from 15N83W across Nicaragua and Costa Rica to EPAC
waters near 06N84W and its speed has been near 20 kt within the
last 24 hours. There is no convection associated with this wave at
the moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to
13N19W to 08N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 05N32W...then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N35W and continues west to
the N South America coast near 04N52W. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms are off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 04N-09N E
of 20W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm either side of the
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface low pressure dominates across the Gulf waters with
moderate to fresh southerly flow east of 90W advecting abundant
moisture from the west Caribbean Sea. This abundant moisture along
with divergent flow aloft between a middle to upper level trough
over the central Gulf and a ridge over Central America and Western
Caribbean support numerous showers, tstms and gusty winds in the
SE Gulf from 24N-27N E of 87W. Scattered showers are observed over
adjacent waters of the Florida Big Bend as well as the Yucatan
channel. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are also observed in
Doppler radar data off the coasts of SE Louisiana and Mississippi
N of 28N. This area of showers is to the NE of a 1004 mb center of
low pressure over the Gulf NW waters near 26N92W with associated
trough extending from 28N91W to the low to 22N93W. This low is
forecast to move to Alabama and the Florida Panhandle adjacent
waters by late Tuesday night. Showers across the eastern Gulf are
forecast to continue through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula, abundant moisture in
the NW Caribbean and a diffluent environment aloft support
scattered showers across the Yucatan Channel and west of 84W. A
tropical wave is moving across Central America, however there is
no convection or shower activity associated with it. Please refer
to the tropical waves section above for details. A tropical wave
SE of the Lesser Antilles along with moisture being advected from
the tropical Atlc and S America by upper level southerly flow
support cloudiness and possible isolated showers in the SE basin
east of 70W. The remainder basin is under fair weather conditions.
Otherwise, scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades S of
16N between 65W-78W and mainly moderate flow elsewhere. The
tropical wave in the west Atlc will cross the Windward Islands
Tuesday evening with possible showers for the eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle level ridge, dry air subsidence from aloft as well as
strong wind shear across the Island support stable conditions and
fair weather. Dust and haze are being repported in the Dominican
Republic. Model guidance indicate fair weather conditions will
prevail Tuesday, however the passage of a tropical wave across the
central Caribbean late Wednesday and Thursaday will support the
development of showers across the Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Diffluent flow aloft prevails
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic supporting
numerous showers, tstms and gusty winds over the northern Bahamas
and adjacent waters. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a
surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N56W,
and a 1028 mb high near 35N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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