[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 13N30W to 05N33W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing
between 29W-37W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity south
of 06N between 26W-32W. No significant convection is observed at
this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 13N58W to 06N59W moving west
at 10-15 kt. This wave has become more convectively active during
the past 24 hours as it moves beneath the western periphery of an
upper-level anticyclone centered near 09N42W. This is providing
for enhanced upper-level diffluence and scattered moderate
convection from 06N-13N between 53W-64W, influencing Trinidad and
Tobago, and the Windward Islands.

A tropical wave extends from 15N80W to the EPAC near 07N81W, moving
west 10-15 kt. The wave is moving beneath an area of generally
dry northerly flow aloft, and remains within the southwestern
periphery of an mid-level ridge anchored northeast of Hispaniola
near 22N63W. With this, scattered moderate is confined south of
10N between 80W-83W affecting Panama, Costa Rica, and their
adjacent waters. This complex of strong convection is expected to
bring heavy rainfall to Panama and the Panama Canal region through
early Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 05N54W. Scattered showers
are observed along the monsoon trough at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A upper-level trough extends from eastern Texas to eastern Mexico, with
primarily west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing over the Gulf.
At the surface, a 1006 mb surface low was analyzed near 29N94W. A
surface trough extends from the low to 23N93W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails near the low mainly north of 26N between 90W-
97W. A diffluent flow prevails across the eastern portion of the
basin supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
east of 90W affecting the Florida Peninsula. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate westerly winds across the western half
of the basin while moderate to locally fresh easterly winds east
of 90W. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel
mainly south of 23N between 85W-89W. Expect during the next 24
hours for the low in the northwest Gulf to merge with another low
currently centered over southern Texas. This new low will move
east across the northern Gulf waters with convection. The
diffluent flow aloft will move east entering the western
Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the southwest Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An upper-level ridge
anchored over Central America and portions of southern Mexico is
providing much of the western Caribbean with dry northerly flow
aloft generally south of 20N and west of 70W. The only portion of
the basin with significant convection is the far northwest
Caribbean, where the convection that developed over the Yucatan
Peninsula is moving northeast. Fair weather prevails elsewhere.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin, with slightly higher winds over the south central Caribbean
within 100 nm north of Colombia. Little change is expected
through the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A few isolated afternoon and early evening showers are occurring
over the island due to peak daytime heating and instability. This
activity will quickly dissipate tonight. A similar weather
pattern is expected through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft prevails
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic supporting
scattered moderate convection west of 76W. To the northeast, a
pre-frontal trough extends from 29N51W to 25N60W. Isolated showers
are observed along the trough. A weakening stationary front
extends along 30N between 53W-64W with no significant convection.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N56W, and a 1028 mb
high near 35N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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