[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 06N28W to 14N27W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 25W-33W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity S of 08N between 26W-32W.
Scattered moderate convection occurring from 03N-09N between 23W-
28W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N57W to 13N55W moving W 10-15 kt.
This weak has become more convectively active during the past 24
hours as it moves beneath the western periphery of an upper level
anticyclone centered near 10N43W. This is providing for enhanced
upper level diffluence and scattered moderate convection from
06N-12N between 52W-63W...influencing Trinidad and Tobago...and
also the southern Windward Islands.

Tropical wave extends from 10N80W to 16N79W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave is moving beneath an area of generally dry northerly
flow aloft...and remains within the southwestern periphery of an
mid-level ridge anchored N of Hispaniola near 22N73W. Given the
current upper level dynamics...scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is confined from 07N-11N between 75W-79W. This
complex of strong convection is expected to bring heavy rainfall
to Panama and the Panama Canal region through early Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
05N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N26W to 04N38W to 05N53W. Aside from convection associated with
the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 03N-
06N between the Prime Meridian and 08W...and from 03N-10N between
09W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is centered over eastern
Texas...western Louisiana...and a portion of the NW Gulf
waters...with primarily west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing
over the Gulf this afternoon. This upper-level trough is
supporting a broad area of weak lower pressure across the western
Gulf focused on a pair of 1007 mb lows...one centered near 22N94W
and the other off the coast of Texas near 29N94W. Scattered
showers and tstms are occurring N of 26N between 92W-97W as middle
to upper level dynamics continue to ultimately drive the stronger
ongoing convection. In addition..mid-level shortwave energy is
noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern Gulf providing
overcast skies and widely scattered to scattered showers and
tstms generally N of 23N E of 90W...including the Florida
peninsula. These two lows are expected to merge by Tuesday...then
skirt the northern Gulf waters and coastal plains early next week
and move E-NE into the SW North Atlc by late Wednesday night.
Otherwise...the remainder of the Gulf is under mostly moderate to
fresh southerly winds as ridging remains anchored across the
Florida peninsula and the SW North Atlc waters. Continued
precipitation across the SE CONUS...Florida peninsula...and
northern Gulf is expected through the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge anchored over Central America and portions
of southern Mexico is providing much of the western Caribbean with
dry northerly flow aloft generally S of 20N W of 70W. Moisture
and cloudiness continues N of 20N bringing scattered showers and
isolated tstms to western Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters.
With the dry air aloft...much of the convection associated with
the Monsoon Rough axis along 09N/10N stretching from northern
Colombia to Costa Rica is occurring S of 11N across eastern
Panama. Farther east...an upper level trough axis extends from NE
of Puerto Rico near 21N61W to a base near 14N69W. E of the trough
axis...moist southwesterly flow is generating scattered showers
and isolated tstms S of 14N E of 68W...including the Windward
Islands...and Trinidad and Tobago. The presence of a tropical
wave along 57W will move W and continue to provide focus for
convective precipitation across portions of Venezuela and the
Windward Island during the next 24-36 hours. Otherwise...fresh to
strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean as high
pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc
region. This area of trades is expected to persist through
Wednesday and then diminish as the ridge to the N weakens and
slides eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon across the island as NW
flow continues to influence the region. A few isolated afternoon
and early evening showers may occur due to peak daytime heating
and instability...only to weaken by late evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the central Atlc waters while upper level ridging prevails
over the SW North Atlc waters. Plenty of moisture and cloudiness
with embedded scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered
tstms are occurring within the influence of the ridging aloft
generally N of 24N W of 71W...including the Florida peninsula.
This overall pattern is expected to persist across the SW North
Atlc waters as an upper level trough approaches from the
west...currently over the Southern Plains and NW Gulf of Mexico.
Farther east...the upper level troughing supports a cold front
extending from 32N50W to 31N53W then continuing as stationary to
29N60W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the front
near 31N52W SW to 25N60W to 25N64W with isolated showers occurring
within 150 nm E of the trough axis and cold front N of 31N.
Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a relatively weak surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered E of Bermuda near 33N60W. Finally...the eastern Atlc
is impacted by a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered S of the Azores near 35N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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