[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 06N21W to 14N19W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 19W-25W
and largely remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough with
scattered moderate convection occurring from 03N-10N between 13W-
24W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N41W to 12N40W moving W 10-15 kt.
This weak wave continues to be suppressed by a generally drier
airmass aloft to the N of 07N and as a result is limiting
scattered moderate convection from 04N-07N between 39W-44W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N73W to 18N71W moving W 10-15 kt.
The wave is moving beneath an area of generally dry northerly flow
aloft...and still remains within the southwestern periphery of an
mid-level ridge anchored NE of the Puerto Rico near 21N62W. Given
the current upper level dynamics...no significant deep convection
is occurring with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
05N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N27W to 04N51W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from
02N-05N between 05W-11W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-07N between 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is centered over the Southern Plains
with primarily west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing over the
Gulf this afternoon. This upper-level trough is supporting
scattered showers and tstms across inland portions of eastern
Texas and western Louisiana...with that line of activity
extending offshore to near 28N96W. In addition..mid-level
shortwave energy is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern
Gulf providing overcast skies and isolated to scattered showers
and tstms generally W of 92W...including the Florida peninsula...
Florida Straits...and approach to the Yucatan Channel. A leftover
low-level circulation center is analyzed as a 1006 mb low
centered in the SW Gulf waters near 22N93W. A burst of scattered
showers and tstms continues E of the low from 20N-23N between 89W-
92W. The low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Otherwise...the
remainder of the Gulf is under mostly moderate to fresh S-SE winds
as ridging remains anchored across the NE Gulf and primarily
across the SW North Atlc waters. An area of weak low pressure is
forecast to skirt the northern Gulf waters and coastal plains
early next week through Wednesday night. Continued precipitation
across the SE CONUS...Florida peninsula...and northern Gulf is
expected through the upcoming week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge anchored over Central America and southern
Mexico is providing much of the western Caribbean with dry
northerly flow aloft generally S of 19N W of 70W. Moisture and
cloudiness continues N of 19N bringing scattered showers and
isolated tstms to the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel...as well as
isolated showers to Cuba. With the dry air aloft...much of the
convection associated with the Monsoon Rough axis along 09N
stretching from northern Colombia to Costa Rica is occurring
across southern Panama and across the Eastern Pacific waters S of
08N. Farther east...an upper level trough axis extends from a
shortwave noted on water vapor imagery near 23N54W SW to 17N63W to
a base near 12N67W. Middle to upper level cloudiness is noted on
visible satellite imagery across a portion of the Leeward
Islands...however no significant deep convection is occurring. A
few isolated showers are however occurring across the Windward
Islands S of 14N. Otherwise...fresh to strong trades prevail
across the central Caribbean as high pressure remains anchored to
the N across the SW North Atlc region. This area of trades is
expected to persist through Wednesday and then diminish as the
ridge to the N weakens and slides eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies prevail this afternoon across the island as NW
flow continues to influence the region. A few isolated afternoon
and early evening showers may occur due to peak daytime heating
and instability...only to weaken by late evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the western North Atlc supporting a cold front extending from
32N60W to 31N62W then continuing as stationary to 30N73W. While
isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the
stationary front...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of
26N between 54W-60W largely due to mid-level lifting dynamics and
the cold front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is
under the influence of a weakened pressure pattern...with
shortwave energy noted across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
Bahamas supporting widely scattered showers and tstms from 22N-30N
W of 74W...including much of the Florida peninsula. Finally
farther east...a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered
SE of the Azores near 36N25W influences much of the central and
eastern Atlc with fair weather and mostly clear skies.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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