[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031124
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 04/1200 UTC, consists
of: the persistence of N or NE near gale in AGADIR and TARFAYA,
with threat of locally gale.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers from 10N southward between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving
through the area of an upper level trough. It is not easy to
distinguish between precipitation that just is related to the wave
and precipitation that just is related to the current upper level
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N15W and 07N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N21W 06N27W 03N38W, to the Equator
along 42W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 03N to
land from 07N eastward. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 02N to 08N from 39W eastward, and from 05N to 10N
between 50W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...and from the NW CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level
ridge extends from western Honduras, across NW Cuba, across the
NW Bahamas, to 30N70W. One surface trough extends from the
Florida Panhandle into SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W. A second surface trough is along
85W/86W from 25N to the Apalachicola Florida area. A third
surface trough is along 24N93W to the eastern part of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 18N to 20N
between 90W and 92W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
other rainshowers are to the east of 95W in the Gulf of Mexico,
and to the NW of the line that passes through 32N59W 25N70W
22N78W in the Atlantic Ocean.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KEMK, KEHC, KGBK, and KEIR.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: the sky conditions range from LIFR in Hebbronville, to
MVFR in McAllen and Alice. IFR in Victoria. Spotty areas of MVFR
from Bay City to Conroe. LOUISIANA: IFR from the NW corner of Lake
Pontchartrain with drizzle, to Baton Rouge and Lafayette and New
Iberia and Patterson. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR and MVFR, and rain from
Natchez to McComb and Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the
Mobile metropolitan area. LIFR in Fort Rucker and Dothan. FLORIDA:
MVFR in the Pensacola metropolitan area. LIFR in Marianna. LIFR
in Brooksville. light rain from Sarasota to the St. Petersburg
metropolitan area. light rain in the Key West metropolitan area.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough extends from 25N64W to Puerto Rico, to
10N70W in NW Venezuela. A 65W/66W tropical wave also is moving
through the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 26N
between 56W and 74W, including at the easternmost tip of the
Dominican Republic.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 03/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: nearby rainshowers. MVFR.
ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be
extending from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Hispaniola.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that initial S wind flow
for about 6 hours, will transition into cyclonic wind flow with a
trough for another six hours. Anticyclonic wind flow will span
the entire area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period.
Multiple ridges, and/or anticyclonic circulation centers, will
span the entire area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48
hours. An east-to-west oriented ridge will extend from the
Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N11W to 23N23W to 10N34W.
A stationary front is along 32N/33N between 23W and 34W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

The surface trough from six hours ago has dissipated.
Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N48W to 30N6054W 29N60W 26N70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward between Africa and 60W, and from 20N northward between
60W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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