[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC,
consists of: the persistence or threat of gale in AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong in the ITCZ
from 06N to 10N between 40W and 50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm
on either side of the wave.

A tropical wave is inland in Nicaragua, along 84W/85W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm on
either side of the line from the coast of Panama near 09N79W
to northern Nicaragua near 14N85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N41W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 01N to 07N between 27W and 40W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 10W westward,
not counting the precipitation that may be directly related to
the tropical waves.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the
Florida Big Bend. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from western Honduras to 24N92W in the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level diffluent wind flow is near the
surface trough. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are
within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the line from eastern
Honduras to just off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are to the
east of the line that runs from the coast of SE Louisiana near
29N90W to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. Precipitation has been
in parts of this area for the last few days. The areal coverage
has been expanding across more of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward during the last 24 hours or so.

Numerous strong rainshowers are in the southern part of Mexico,
between 95W and 99W, just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Tropical Depression
Beatriz is inland.

A weak surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, to 27N90W, to the Mexico coast near 24N98W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KMDJ.

MVFR: KVQT, KGRY, and KEIR.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: MVFR-IFR from Laredo to Hebbronville, Falfurrias, and
Kingsville. LIFR in Alice. LIFR in Victoria. MVFR in Port Lavaca.
IFR in Palacios. MVFR/IFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson.
MVFR from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Jasper. LIFR from the IAH
airport to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR from Hammond southward and
westward. MVFR in Slidell. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the Hattiesburg
metropolitan area. IFR in Natchez. MVFR in McComb and Gulfport,
and in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: light
rain in the Panhandle and Big Bend from Cross City northwestward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA and HISPANIOLA...

An upper level trough is along 26N67W, extends from a 24N67W
cyclonic circulation center, through the Mona Passage and across
Puerto Rico, to 15N69W in the Caribbean Sea, to Lake Maracaibo in
NW Venezuela. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from
NW Venezuela to 24N in the Atlantic Ocean between 56W and 73W.
Widely scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in Colombia from
06N to 08N between 73W and 75W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 02/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.68 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.23 in Guadeloupe.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR at all the stations that are around the
country.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that N wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The N wind flow
during day one and early into day two will be related to the
trough. The northerly wind flow for the rest of day two will be
related to a ridge that will be moving eastward, from Belize and
the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that cyclonic wind flow, with a cyclonic circulation center,
will span the area during day one. Expect broad cyclonic wind,
as parts of a ridge try to move into the westernmost sections of
Hispaniola early in day two, followed by some NW wind flow, in
order to complete most of the first half of day two. The second
half of day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to
27N23W 20N30W, to 10N35W. A cold front passes through 33N30W to
32N36W. A stationary front continues from 32N36W beyond 33N39W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A surface trough remains from the cold front of 24 hours ago. The
trough passes through 32N49W to 30N51W 25N60W and 24N62W.
Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between 46W and 80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center has become cut off near
26N52W. It is surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence
for a radius of 120 nm. This center is between the Madeira
Archipelago-to-10N35W trough, and the trough that is passing
through the Mona Passage.

A surface ridge is along 33N23W to 28N40W to 24N54W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west of
the 32N49W-to-24N62W surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure
center is near 31N60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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