[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 02/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence or threat of NORTHERLY near gale or
gale in AGADIR, and locally near islands of CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
12N34W to 03N34W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear from 0N-10N, is in a
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb with small
patches of dry air as shown by CIRA LPW imagery, and is under
middle to upper level divergent flow. All these factors support
scattered moderate convection from 02N-10N between 30W-37W.

A tropical wave is in the western Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N51W to inland French Guiana near 02N54W, moving W at
15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show a very
moist low level environment associated with this wave. This
moisture along with middle to upper level divergence support
numerous moderate convection and isolated tstms from 04N-10N
between 48W-56W.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis extending from
12N81W across Panama to the EPAC waters near 04N81W, moving W at
20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery show the wave is
mainly in a moderate moist environment and under the influence of
middle to upper level diffluence, which is supporting numerous
heavy showers and scattered tstms S of 13N between 78W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
10N14W and continues to 08N20W where the ITCZ begins and then
extends to 07N33W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical near
05N37W and continues to 05N50W. For information about convection
see the tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The outer rainbands of tropical depression two just S of Mexico
over EPAC waters extend across most of the Gulf. Scattered to
isolated showers with isolated tstms are in the SW basin and N of
25N while numerous heavy showers with scattered tstms are in the
central Gulf from 23N-26N between 84W-90W. Middle to upper level
diffluent flow embedded in a ridge enhance this convection. An
elongated surface trough prevails along the NW Gulf coast
extending from Texas near 27N97W to SE Louisiana near 29N88W.
Scattered showers and tstms are within 60 nm off its axis. A weak
surface ridge dominates the eastern basin, thus supporting light
to moderate SE winds basin-wide, except over Veracruz, Mexico
coastal waters where the latest scatterometer pass shows fresh to
near gale force winds. Return flow will prevail across most of the
basin through Saturday. A surface trough, currently over the Bay
of Campeche is forecast to develop a center of low pressure
Saturday, which will move NW towards southern Texas Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are in the SW Caribbean
associated with a tropical wave moving across Panama. See the tropical
waves section for further details. A middle to upper level low
N-NW of Puerto Rico continue to support scattered showers and
tstms across eastern Dominican Republic. Numerous showers and
tstms are expected for western Puerto Rico and adjacent waters
while passing showers are expected across the remainder Island. These
showers will slightly diminish through Friday evening as the
upper level low supporting it shifts east while weakening. Fresh
to strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia during
the weekend as well as pulsing fresh to near gale force winds in
the Gulf of Honduras.

HISPANIOLA...

A middle to upper level low N-NW of Puerto Rico continue to
support scattered showers and tstms in the eastern Dominican
Republic. These showers will slightly diminish through Friday
evening as the upper level low supporting it shifts further to the
east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic waters. Please
refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Otherwise,
the remainder basin is under the influence of a broad surface
ridge that is anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs N of the area.
A weakening stationary front is from 30N51W to 25N60W, which will
dissipate by Friday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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